The grain market showed a cautious recovery in the last trading session after the selling round a day earlier. Harvest forecasts from South America continue to preoccupy players in the market. In addition, positions are also taken in the run-up to the USDA's Wasde report, which will be published tonight Dutch time.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed €2,50 higher yesterday at €293 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat showed an even stronger move upwards. Chicago's March wheat contract closed 1,2% higher at $7,40 a bushel. Corn and soy mainly moved sideways on the American stock market. Corn rose 0,2% and soy was 0,3% higher.
The wheat market is currently mainly dominated by the upcoming Wasde report. There is stiff competition on the world market from wheat from the Black Sea region and the demand for wheat from the US in particular is therefore disappointing. Analysts are particularly curious about how the USDA includes this movement in the inventory figures. The good wheat harvest in Australia and the expected wheat harvest in India will also most likely cause shifts in the wheat balance.
Too dry or too wet
For the soy and corn markets, eyes are on South America. The Rosario grain exchange has reduced the soy harvest to 37 million tons for Argentina. In the previous forecast, the stock exchange assumed a harvest of 49 million tons. The yield forecast for corn has been reduced by 10 million tons to 45 million tons. The cause is the extreme drought in Argentina. The country is experiencing the worst drought in sixty years. The figures from the Rosario grain exchange are in line with the expectations of the Buenos Aires exchange that were released earlier this week.
Brazil is on track for a record soy harvest. At least that is what the market agency Agroconsult writes. The total soy harvest is expected to be 153,4 million tons. The southern parts of Brazil are experiencing drought, but nevertheless the expected yield is higher than last season. Scattered showers have limited the damage this year. In the central western part of Brazil, the soy harvest is now getting off to a slow start due to rain, according to Agroconsult.