The wheat quotation remains under pressure. A top harvest in Russia, among other things, ensures fierce competition on the world market. Grain yields in Ukraine are disappointing, according to figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. In South America, too, harvest forecasts vary considerably. Brazil could well thresh a record amount of soy, while drought remains a problem in Argentina.
The March contract for wheat also had to give up again yesterday on the Matif. The price fell by €1,25 compared to the closing price before the weekend to €287,50 per tonne. The American stock market was closed yesterday in observance of Martin Luther King Day.
According to some analysts, the ample supply of wheat from Russia due to a large harvest weighed quite heavily on the market. Competition on the global market is therefore fierce and that puts pressure on prices. Somewhat disappointing figures for Russian exports for the second week of January reinforced that feeling. According to preliminary figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, the grain harvest in Ukraine is significantly lower than last season. As of January 12, 51 million tons of grain have been harvested from 94% of the expected harvestable area. Last season the total grain harvest amounted to 86 million tons. The smaller Ukrainian harvest is partly because parts of the country are now occupied by Russia and partly because of lower yields per hectare.
15% of corn not harvested
Corn is the most important crop that is still established. The total Ukrainian corn harvest so far stands at 23,5 million tons and 85% of the area is harvested. The quality of the corn still in the country is a point of concern for the farmers involved. Due to the ailing winter weather and advanced ripening, the maize starts to alloy and fungi easily take hold of the crop.
Analysts expect a record soy harvest for Brazil. At least that is the outcome of a poll conducted by Reuters and published yesterday (Monday, January 16). The total soy harvest for the 2022/23 season would remain just under 153 million tons. The large harvest is the result of growth in the sown area and high yields per hectare due to favorable weather in large parts of the country. A little further south in Latin America, in Argentina, the weather has been less cooperative for high yields so far this season. Farmers there are struggling with the consequences of drought. There is some change to be made. The weather reports predict rain in the coming days. The precipitation can give dry crops a boost, but several analysts warn that this does not solve all problems. First of all, according to the weather models, only a limited amount of rain falls. In addition, soy and corn are lagging behind and this will not easily be made up for.