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Analysis Grains & Commodities

Grain market shows correction after days of increase

10 February 2023 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

The grain market took a step back last trading session. The wheat price was somewhat under pressure due to a better harvest expectation and the export of wheat in the US is not quite as expected. Russia is also stirring again about the grain deal in the Black Sea region.

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The March wheat contract on the Matif took a step back yesterday to €291,75 per tonne. That is €3 less compared to the previous closing price. On the CBoT, wheat prices fell 1% to $7.57¼ per bushel. Corn showed similar price action, dropping 1,1% to 6.70¾ per bushel. Soy moved mainly sideways on the Chicago stock exchange and closed almost flat.

The grain market is showing a correction after expectations were perhaps raised a little too far by Wednesday's Wasde report. In addition, disappointing export figures on the American wheat market are putting pressure on the market. Weekly exports amount to 151.000 tons of wheat, which is within the range expected by the trade, but is at the bottom of the bandwidth. Strategy Grains has revised its harvest forecast for the EU wheat harvest upwards to 129,7 million tonnes. That is 400.000 tons more than in the previous harvest forecast. Favorable growing conditions so far this season have prompted Strategy Grains to adjust the harvest forecast upwards.

Complaint to the UN
The Russian ambassador to the UN has complained that Russian wheat does not have sufficient access to the world market despite the grain deal, the Russian news agency RIA Novosti writes. According to the ambassador, Russia has not been able to export any grain at all under the banner of the much-discussed deal between Russia and Ukraine to keep the ports on the Black Sea open for grain exports despite the war. Russia's complaint is not justified, experts say. The deal, which was reached under the leadership of Turkey and the UN, was intended to get grain out of Ukraine. The Russian ports have not been blocked at all. And this is also evident from the export figures to date.

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