Weather reports more dominant on grain market

The September wheat contract on the Matif gave up €5,50 yesterday, closing at €220,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, prices fell on the first trading day after the long weekend. The July wheat contract on the Chicago exchange fell 4,1% to $5.91 per bushel. That is the lowest price since December 2021. Soy lost 3,1% to close at $12.96½ per bushel. Corn also did not survive, but compared to wheat and soy, losses were limited to 1,7% to $5.94 per bushel.

Stiff competition on the world wheat market is cited by several analysts as an important cause of the red figures on the wheat market in both Paris and Chicago. Market agency IKAR lowered the quote for Russian Black Sea wheat by $12 back to $230 per tonne. Russia sets the tone on the world market with the price reduction. The American wheat trade is also becoming somewhat nervous about imports from the EU. According to some sources, US buyers have purchased an additional 60.000 tons of wheat from Germany and Poland. In recent weeks, wheat processors have already imported a total of 300.000 tons from the EU.

Imports increased faster than exports
The EU has exported 28 million tonnes of wheat this season until May 28,40, according to statistics published yesterday. Last season the counter stood at 25,47 million tons. This is offset by a much larger import of wheat. In the current season, 8,23 ​​million tons of wheat were imported compared to 2,40 million tons last season. Ukraine is by far the largest wheat supplier to the EU with 5,20 million tons. By comparison, Ukraine exported 351.000 tons of wheat to the EU last season. After Ukraine, the UK is the most important wheat supplier with 1,56 tonnes, which is more than 1 million tonnes more than last season.

Corn is almost there
Corn sowing in the US is in the final stages. Of the planned area, 92% is in the ground, according to the USDA's Crop Progress report published last night Dutch time. The five-year average for the week stands at 84%. The corn that has been sown is growing reasonably well on average. Of the sown area, 72% is above ground compared to 63% in the five-year average. Yet 'only' 69% of the area receives a good or excellent rating. That was 73% last year. American farmers are also well on schedule with sowing soy. Of the planned area, 83% has been sown compared to 65% in the five-year average.

The catch-up that has been made with the sowing of spring wheat is spectacular. In one week, more than a fifth of the planned area has been sown. This means that 85% of the spring wheat is now in the ground and that is almost equal to the five-year average of 86%. This week the USDA made some adjustments to the condition of winter wheat in the US. The percentage of the area that is good or excellent has increased from 31% last week to 34% this week. Winter wheat in Kansas remains a concern with 69% of the area in poor or very poor condition.

Will the weather continue to cooperate?
According to some analysts, the weather will be the deciding factor on the grain market. In Europe, weather extremes and their consequences on crop yields are not too bad, with the exception of the drought on the Iberian Peninsula, but in the US things look less favorable. Significant rain has fallen in the wheat belt, but several experts say it is too little, too late. However, the rain does have an influence on the market and the fear of disappointing wheat yields has faded somewhat on the wheat market.

In the major corn and soy growing regions, stable dry weather has enabled significant progress in sowing. Now that these crops are largely in the ground, a shower would be welcome to get the corn and soy growing properly. However, precipitation is not expected by the American Meteorological Institute.