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Analysis Grains & Commodities

Cool and wet weather in the US causes grain prices to fall

June 15, 2023 - Max van der Heijden

Improved weather conditions in the US led to lower grain prices on Wednesday. Another factor is that traders wanted to grab their profit after a few days of rising. In addition, there are concerns about the effects of a possible recession on the commodities market. 

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The price of the September contract for wheat on the Matif fell to €233,25 per tonne on Wednesday. In Chicago, the July contract also closed lower at $6,30 per bushel and the September contract closed lower at $6,41 per bushel. 

After rising for four trading sessions in a row, wheat prices fell on Wednesday as traders sought to take their profits and price pressure from the growing US winter wheat harvest. Meanwhile, commodity traders worry that further Fed rate hikes will push the US economy into recession, reducing demand for commodities. 

Traders also closely follow the news from Ukraine and the Black Sea region. On Wednesday, the Kremlin confirmed what Vladimir Putin said a day earlier: that Russia is considering withdrawing from the grain deal. Consulting company Agritel has lowered its forecast for the Romanian wheat harvest by 15%. a dry month of May in Europe put pressure on the crop in Europe. France AgriMer has lowered its monthly export forecast for French wheat outside the EU by 100.000 tonnes to 10,2 million tonnes, although this is still 16% higher than a season ago. 

peasant protests
July and August soybean contracts fell on Wednesday. To $13,88 per bushel and $13,19 per bushel respectively. The drop is the result of several weather fronts moving towards the US and possibly bringing rainfall this weekend. For traders, the declining demand weighs more heavily on the price than the drought in the US that caused the price to rise in recent months. 

Soybean imports into the EU for the 2022/23 season stood at 12,33 million tons on June 11, which is 12% lower than a year earlier. 

In Mexico, several flights had to be canceled after farmers demanding a minimum price for their grains clashed with the government during a protest. 

The July corn contract fell to $6,078 per bushel and the September contract also closed lower at $5,45 per bushel. Corn prices are falling due to the cooler and wetter weather currently sweeping across the US grain belt this weekend. The conditions for Chinese corn production have improved, but drought is still a problem there too. A sharp decline in the dollar could make U.S. corn more attractive for exports. 

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