European soy crop may be higher this year

Uncertainty about the wheat harvests and the grain deal hangs over the market. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday that it appears the deal will not be extended. Yesterday, Russia's deputy foreign minister said that even if the Black Sea deal expires, the deal between Russia and the UN to ease Russian exports will remain in place. 

The 2023 grain harvest has started in Ukraine and Russia. In Odessa the barley is harvested first. In the European Union's Mars bulletin, the average wheat yield per hectare has been reduced to 5,92 tonnes. This is still higher than the 5,79 tonnes per hectare of a year ago. Saudi Arabia has purchased 355.000 tons of wheat at an average of $302,90 per ton FOB (free on board). The Algerian grain buyer has purchased milling wheat in an international tender that closed yesterday. It is expected that the majority of these will come from Russia.

Soy and corn 
Traders expect corn and soybean conditions to decline in the next USDA crop progress report. This after the disappointing rainfall this weekend. The European soy yield is estimated higher by the European Union at 2,89 tons per hectare, 5% higher than the five-year average and 1% higher than the estimate in May. Despite the fact that rainfall has delayed soy sowing, the Mars Institute still has good expectations for the European soy harvest, especially around the Danube. 

In Brazil, the second corn harvest of 2023 is now underway and reached 6,1% of the estimated area in the central south of the country. In Mato Grosso, 12,9% of the area has now been harvested, in Parana 0,1%, in Sao Paulo 0,1%, in Mato Grosso do Sul 0,2% and Goias 1,1%. The harvest has not yet started in Minas Gerais. This time of year last year, 9,3% of the acreage in the central south had been harvested, although the acreage was smaller at the time. However, harvest progress is well above the five-year average.