European grain exporters are not in a hurry yet

The September wheat contract on the Matif closed €1,75 lower yesterday at €228 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat yielded 1,4% to $5.89½ per bushel. Corn and soy both showed a moderate increase last trading session. Corn closed 0,7% higher at $4.73 per bushel and soy added 0,1% to $13.36¾ per bushel.

Wheat is currently the weakest link in the grain market. Unrest in the Black Sea region naturally continues to hang over the market like a dark blanket. News from the front provokes a reaction on the market, but the influence is less than has been the case in recent months. In that respect, players on the market are quickly getting used to the new situation.

Ukrainian grain exports via the Danube are not yet going entirely as planned. APK Inform reports that 820.000 tons of grain were exported via this route in the first half of August. If this line is continued, you would end up with a monthly export of approximately 1,6 million tons. The goal is a monthly export via the Danube of 2,5 million. To achieve that, there is still work to be done.  

Slow European exports
EU exports are also slowing down a bit. In the first weeks of the 2023/24 season until August 13, 3,72 million tons of wheat were exported. A year earlier the counter stood at 4,19 million tons. The main buyers of European wheat are Morocco with 834.000 tons and Algeria with 457.000 tons. Barley exports are also somewhat slower compared to last season. So far, exports are 27% behind. On the other hand, less has been imported. Soy imports from the EU are 17% lower compared to last season and even 31% less corn was imported in the period up to and including August 13.

Dry
Weather reports in the US currently have more influence on the mood in the market. The southern prairies are still experiencing drought but moisture is being replenished. In this week's drought monitor, the winter wheat area suffering from drought has fallen from 45% to 43%. That is immediately the lowest percentage in a year. This season's wheat harvest has largely been harvested, but the starting position for the wheat that will be sown next autumn can benefit from this. Spring wheat in the US - which is grown in the more northern states - is still largely frozen and drought is increasing there. The effect of this remains limited because the crop is already almost ripe.

This is different with corn and soy. These crops are still growing and could use a sip of water again. In the west of the cornbelt, hardly any rain has fallen in recent days and this is also reflected in the drought monitor. The drought in the Mississippi Delta is less important for corn, but for soy and cotton. Little rain and high temperatures certainly don't do the crops any good.