The grain market closed in the green last trading session. Drought in Australia and Ukraine is giving wheat in particular a boost, according to analysts. The war in Ukraine also continues to influence the grain market. The USDA still managed to surprise the market with the new edition of the Crop Progress report.
The December contract for wheat on the Matif rose yesterday by €4,50 to €240,25 per tonne. Prices were also on the rise on the CBoT. Wheat was the biggest gainer, gaining 1,6% to close at $5.89 per bushel. Corn closed 0,8% higher at $4.81¼ a bushel. Soy mainly moved sideways but ultimately recorded a plus of 0,1%, reaching $12.97¾ per bushel.
Drought in various parts of the world is making the wheat market nervous, according to several analysts. Australian grain crops have had little or no rainfall so far this month. September is an important month in the growing season there and too little moisture during this period depresses potential yields. It is also dry in Ukraine and that causes problems with sowing winter crops. Rapeseed, which is sown first, is already a victim of this according to some sources, but now that wheat has to be sown slowly, the situation is becoming more dire.
The mutual attacks by Russia and Ukraine are also creating a lot of unrest. Market agency Ikar nevertheless keeps the quotation for Russian Black Sea wheat the same as last week at $235 per ton delivered on the ship. That is considerably lower than the $270 with which Russian traders subscribed to the last Egyptian tender last week. Russian exports are doing better than expected according to Sovecon. The export forecast for September has been adjusted upwards by 200.000 tons by the market agency to 5,1 million tons. In August, Russia exported 4,2 million tons.
Adaptation in maize
The USDA has made a somewhat notable adjustment to corn condition in its weekly Crop Progress report. 53% of the area is given the status of good or excellent. Last week that was still 51%. Soya, on the other hand, has deteriorated slightly. 50% of the area receives a good or excellent rating compared to 52% last week. By making a better assessment of corn and reducing soy, the USDA is sending a contradictory signal, according to some analysts. Now it could also be that the worst corn was harvested first. The harvest of both corn and soy is slightly ahead of the five-year average. Corn is down 15% compared to 13% in the five-year average and soy is down 12% compared to 11% in the average. The figures are up to September 24 and rain fell in the US last weekend, so it would not be illogical if the small lead is lost again next week.
The harvest of spring wheat and barley is 96% advanced, which is reasonably in line with the five-year average. Sowing winter wheat is a bit slower this season. 26% of the planned area is in the ground compared to 29% in the five-year average. Of the wheat that has already been sown, 7% is already grown. This time last year it was 8%, but the multi-year average is 6%.