Grain prices on the futures markets were under some pressure last trading session. On the CBoT, this mainly has to do with speculators who have taken their profits, according to analysts. Stopping the Black Sea grain deal has not been without consequences for Ukrainian grain exports, according to the new figures. The alternative that Ukraine is now working on is not without risks, the British government warns. In corn and soy, players keep their cards close to their chest and wait for the harvest results, it seems.
The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed €2,50 lower yesterday, reaching €234 per tonne. Wheat was also under pressure on the American stock market. On the CBoT, wheat yielded 1,5% to close at $5.60 per bushel. Corn also fell slightly, down 0,3% to $4.86 per bushel. Soy, as is almost usual, moved mostly sideways in recent days, eventually gaining ¼ cent to close at $12.73 per bushel.
Ukraine is having difficulty with grain exports, according to the most recent figures published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. Of course, that doesn't come as a surprise. The current season so far, Ukraine has exported 6,82 million tons of grain. Last season, the export count stood at 8,99 million tons in the same period. In the first days of October, 153.000 tons were exported compared to 297.000 tons a year earlier. The 22 ships that are ready or have already delivered cargo across the humanitarian corridor do not yet make a difference in exports.
Will Russia respond?
The British government warned yesterday that the humanitarian corridor could be targeted by Russia. The government made these statements based on information from the intelligence services. For example, one of the tactics could be laying naval mines in the mouths of Ukrainian ports. Russia wants to deter merchant ships in this way and thus deal a blow to grain exports. "Russia almost certainly wants to avoid openly sinking civilian ships, but will instead try to blame Ukraine for any attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea," the British Foreign Office said in a memo. At the beginning of September, the British linked Russia to an attack on a merchant ship moored in the port of Odessa.
wait
In the corn and soy it is neither meat nor fish. Scattered showers in the US Midwest are hampering harvest progress, but with dry weather in the forecast for the coming week, this is not really disrupting the market. It will be more interesting to see what the results will do. Last week, the USDA surprised the wheat market with remarkably high yields in spring wheat despite a lack of precipitation. Will we get a repeat of that with corn and soy later this season? Reports differ about this at the moment. One person reports that the yields are not too bad given the course of the growing season, while the next person reports that it is all disappointing.