Analysis Grains & Commodities
Indian stories or not about access to the Black Sea
Whether or not ships have access to the Black Sea has been on the grain market again for some time yesterday. Reports about the humanitarian corridor - as Ukraine calls its own alternative to the Black Sea grain deal - contradicted each other. In America it is not a military blockade but low river levels that limit transport capacity. That is now slowly changing.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe December wheat contract on the Matif closed €1,50 higher yesterday at €233,50 per tonne. On the CboT, wheat rose 1,9% to $5.79½ per bushel. Corn and soy both closed lower. Corn lost 0,2% to close at $4.79¾ per bushel and soy dropped 0,7% to $12.79½ per bushel.
Unrest in the Black Sea gave the wheat market a boost yesterday. The humanitarian corridor that Ukraine established as an alternative to the grain deal is rumored to have been interrupted. Russia has reportedly laid naval mines in the mouth of Odessa's port and prepared fighter jets to attack merchant ships. According to the British maritime safety company, the message to temporarily suspend civilian shipping comes from the Ukrainian port authorities.
Turbulent times
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov denies this
clamp on X (formerly Twitter). According to Kubrakov, the reports are not true and the routes that have been declared safe by the Ukrainian navy can be used as usual. The minister does make a somewhat cryptic reference to the difficult circumstances under which the corridor was created and how that affects its functioning. Remarkably, Chicago responded more strongly than Paris to the problems in the Black Sea.
In North and South America, it is logistics that, in a sense, leaves a mark on the grain trade. Due to the precipitation in recent days, the level of the Amazon and the Mississippi is rising. Both rivers were very low, meaning that carriers could not fully load inland vessels and Rhine barges. In Brazil, some branches of the Amazon were not navigable at all for grain transport. The rain on the southern prairies in the US is not yet reflected in the drought monitor. States such as Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Louisiana remain largely red.
China injected some life into the North American soy market yesterday. Earlier this week, a kind of declaration of intent was signed to purchase agricultural products from the US, but that did not immediately result in concrete trade. That changed yesterday morning (American time) with an unexpected Chinese order for 110.000 tons of soy. The predicted rain for Brazil and declining biodiesel production figures ultimately weighed more heavily on market players.