The picture on the grain market is mixed. Wheat took a hit last trading session, partly due to a good start for winter wheat in the US. Corn and soy moved mainly sideways. Weather reports for South America and harvest progress in the US determine the market mood for these crops.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,25 lower at €229,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat was also down, closing 1,7% lower at $5.56¼ per bushel. Corn showed a very modest gain on the Chicago exchange, closing 0,1% higher at $4.78¾ per bushel. Soy also inched up 0,3% to $12.87 per bushel.
Rainfall that has recently fallen on the southern prairies of the US has been cited by several analysts as the main reason for the fall in wheat on the Chicago stock exchange. Winter wheat in America is therefore off to a good start. The USDA's rating earlier this week, at 47% good or excellent, is the highest since 2019. In Ukraine, sowing of winter crops is progressing steadily. A total of 5,34 million hectares have been sown, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. Of this area, 3,73 million hectares is winter wheat.
Wheat exports are disappointing
Wheat exports from the EU continue to lag behind last season. Until October 29, 9,61 million tons have been exported, which is 23% less than last season in the same period. Tunisia has secured 100.000 tons of wheat in a tender. The average price in the tender is $269 per tonne C&F (delivered free). Reports that China is heading for record wheat imports this calendar year did not really move the market. That can also be explained. Chinese imports would amount to 12 million tons. Through the end of September, China has already imported 10,2 million tons, according to the country's customs figures. So the bulk has already arrived.
For corn and soy, market players and analysts are torn between the harvest in the US, which is progressing steadily, and the weather reports in South America, where soy is sown. Rain and snow are causing some delays in the corn harvest in some parts of the US, but that is not really making the trade hot or cold. In South America the situation is more difficult to explain. In Argentina and parts of Brazil, rain is favorable for the start of soy. For winter wheat that is ripening, it would be better to remain dry according to some sources. In southern Brazil and Paraguay, downpours cause flooding. Some rivers have burst their banks and agricultural areas cannot escape nuisance.