Last trading session, wheat stood out on the CBoT. An incident in the Black Sea, a reduction in the wheat forecast for Argentina and difficult conditions for sowing winter wheat in Europe have not gone unnoticed by the market. The November edition of the Wasde report, which will be released tonight Dutch time, also contributes to the nervous mood.
The December wheat contract on the Matif rose yesterday by €3,50 to €235,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat took a big step higher, closing 3,9% higher at $5.92¼ per bushel. Corn was also on the rise, gaining 1,6% to $4.76 per bushel. Soy moved mostly sideways last trading session, closing ¼ cent higher at $13.49 per bushel.
The wheat market received a big boost last trading session from various tenders that led to purchases. A resumption of the Black Sea grains deal will be difficult, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Reuters yesterday: "We will continue our efforts, but it will be difficult." According to the UN chief, the aim of the ongoing talks is for Ukraine and Russia to grant each other free access to the Black Sea for merchant shipping. Russia withdrew from the grain deal last July because, according to the Kremlin, Russian interests in grain and fertilizer exports were insufficiently safeguarded.
As an alternative to the grain deal, Ukraine has established a humanitarian corridor. A Ukrainian commander announced via Telegram that a civilian ship was hit by a missile yesterday. One crew member was reportedly killed and four injured. “The missile hit the superstructure of a merchant ship flying the flag of Liberia as it entered the port,” Ukraine wrote on Telegram. The ship was not transporting grain but iron ore.
Rain delays sowing of wheat
In Western Europe, concerns are increasing about the excessive rain in recent weeks. In France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, 30% of the planned area had been sown as of October 62, according to FranceAgriMer. The five-year average for this period is 72%. And the wet weather in Northwestern Europe is not over yet. There will be no dry period until November 20 during which sowing can be resumed. The ideal time for sowing winter wheat is the second half of October. Sowing a month later costs approximately 10% to 20% of the potential yield.
Argentinian farmers are eagerly awaiting rain after three very dry years. And precipitation has also fallen in recent weeks. However, the moisture comes too late for winter wheat. The Rosario grain exchange lowered its winter wheat yield forecast by 800.000 tons to 13,5 million tons. In the October Wasde report, the USDA expected a harvest of 16,5 million tons of wheat.
Full of anticipation
The November edition of the Wasde report will be released tonight Dutch time. According to some analysts, the rise of wheat and corn on the CBoT cannot be completely separated from this report. Drought in Australia, too dry or too wet in South America, wet conditions in Northern Europe and a reasonably successful corn harvest in the US; It does not seem illogical that the USDA will make the necessary adjustments to the Wasde report. Market players do not expect any major shifts in American grain stocks, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires.