The mood on the grain market was depressed last trading session. This is not entirely consistent with developments regarding the growing season in Northwest Europe, with flooding and flooding. In Russia, the grain harvest is smaller than last season according to the first figures. There are some conflicting reports from Australia about harvest expectations.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2 lower at €232,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat lost 1,2% to close at $5.53½ per bushel. Soy was down a bit more, closing down 1,8% at $13.60¼ per bushel. Corn posted a modest gain of 0,9% last trading session, reaching $4.74¾ per bushel.
Floods and a lot of rain will have an impact on the expected grain harvest in France for 2024. Benoît Piétrement, director of FranceAgriMer, warns about this during a virtual press conference. "The water won't go away and sowing is not possible, at least not immediately. It will take at least weeks for the soil to dry out and the winter crops are having a hard time. We are very concerned." According to Piétrement, the damage still needs to be properly assessed. According to Meteo France, so much rain has never fallen in 26 consecutive days, with an average of 215 millimeters in the period from October 18 to November 12.
The flooding is not limited to France. It is also happening in Belgium and there are floods. Fortunately, there are no large-scale floods in the Netherlands and Germany. That doesn't mean there aren't any problems. Farmers hardly get the chance to dig up later crops such as potatoes and beets, let alone manage to get them into the ground everywhere where winter wheat was planned. Where sowing has been done, flooded areas are the rule rather than the exception.
Smaller harvest
Growers in Russia have harvested 140,6 million tons of grain in recent months, the Russian news agency Interfax writes based on data from Rosstat. This means that the harvested volume is 8% smaller than in the same period last year. 94% of the sown grain area has been harvested. The percentage that has been harvested is therefore roughly the same as last season. The figures do not include Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. Russian grain exporter Demetra plans to build its own fleet. Interfax writes that the company plans to purchase ten to fifteen ships. These ships will mainly be deployed in the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov. This season, Demetra wants to export 12 million tons of grain.
The director of Graincorp Ltd expects good yields from winter crops in Australia. According to Spurway, farmers in central New South Wales are quite optimistic that the grain harvest is about to begin. Spurway's statements are at odds with earlier predictions. For example, the ministry assumes that the grain harvest will be more than a third lower this season compared to last season. In the last report from September, the ministry expected a wheat harvest of 25,4 million tons. The weather phenomenon El Niño ensures that less rainfall than average falls in Australia. Over the past three years we have had to deal with La Niña, which causes extra precipitation in Australia.