Concerns about unrest in the Black Sea region have lost their influence on the grain market, we can say after the tepid response to the Russian attack on Odessa. This can partly be explained by new export routes. The alternative routes are not free of obstacles. After the farmers, it is now the Polish truck drivers who are protesting against competition from Ukraine. Soya remains quite volatile and it is mainly developments in South America that are leaving their mark on the market.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed €1,50 lower yesterday at €224 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat and corn moved mainly sideways last trading session. Wheat closed 0,1% higher at $5.55¾ per bushel. Corn lost 0,3% to $4.68¾ per bushel. Soy had a lot more action compared to the grains. In Chicago, soy closed 1,6% lower at $13.56½ a bushel. Today the CBoT is closed for Thanksgiving Day.
Wheat prices showed no major shifts in both Paris and Chicago last trading session. That is remarkable in a sense. Late on Tuesday, reports emerged of a new Russian attack on the port of Odessa. According to analysts, a reminder of the threat of war that still hangs like a dark cloud over the Black Sea region. Not so long ago, there would have been a clear reaction on the grain market. However, this has hardly been the case in recent days.
This will partly be due to other export routes that have been developed for grain from Ukraine. An example of this is export via the Danube. The Romanian Port Authority of Constanta reported yesterday that a record amount of 29,4 million tons of grain was handled in the first ten months of this year. Of this, approximately 40%, or 11,7 million tons, came from Ukraine. For comparison: in all of 2022 this was 8,6 million tons.
New protests
Ukrainian overland truck exports are less successful this month. Exports in the first twenty days of November are 5,2% behind the same period in October, Reuters reports based on trade sources. The cause is roadblocks by Polish truck drivers. After the protests by farmers in Poland against the influx of relatively cheap grain from Ukraine, it is now drivers who believe that the Polish government is doing nothing about the loss of work to foreign transport companies. This only applies to exports from Ukraine to Poland. Exports remain stable at the national borders with Romania, Hungary and Moldova.
Larger soy harvest
In corn, but especially soy, prices took a step back due to rain in the dry regions in Brazil. That just gives some air for the crops that are growing there, according to local sources. Drought problems are not uncommon. The dry, warm weather will return next week according to the weather forecasters. AgroConsult estimates the Brazilian soy harvest at 161,6 million tons. That is just under the 163 million tons that the USDA expects. It is notable that AgroConsult expects the area to grow by 2,9% compared to last year. The total soy harvest in the major producers in South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) is estimated by AgroConsult at 228,6 million tons this season compared to 193,7 million tons last season.