Wheat also continued its upward trend last trading session. That's remarkable in a way. The US export figures were certainly nothing to write home about and Canada significantly adjusted its yield upwards. A large order from China, moderate exports from Ukraine and an overall tight balance sheet apparently weighed more heavily on trade. Corn and soy are in a bit of a downgrade and, according to some analysts, that may not be entirely justified.
The December contract for wheat on the Matif increased €0,75 to €233,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, the December wheat contract rose 3,3% to $5.95¾ per bushel. Corn closed 1% lower at $4.60¼ a bushel. The biggest faller on the Chicago exchange was soy, which closed 1,4% lower at $13.06¼ per bushel.
Ukraine has exported 13,4 million tons of grain so far this season. This is evident from the export figures published yesterday by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. Last year around this time the counter stood at 18,3 million tons. In November, 3,86 tons of grain were exported, including 1,3 million tons of wheat and 2,4 million tons of corn. The US exported 188.000 tons of wheat, below trade expectations, which expected exports of 225.000 to 350.000 tons. However, this has only limited influence on the CBoT. Large orders from China mean that market players do not pay much attention to the weekly figures. The USDA yesterday reported a new order of 440.000 tons from a buyer in China. That is the largest purchase in one day in more than ten years.
Major adjustments in Canadian harvest figures
Statistics Canada yesterday released the adjusted figures for the 2023 harvest. It was expected that yields would be higher than previously predicted by the statistical office, but the adjustment in wheat in particular was larger than expected. The total wheat harvest has been adjusted to 32 million tons. In September the harvest was still estimated at 29,8 million tons. A Reuters poll showed that trade was expected to reach 31,1 million. The largest adjustment was made in spring wheat, from 22,6 million tons in September to 24,8 million tons yesterday. Although wheat yields have increased, they still remain the second smallest harvest in the last six years. The rapeseed yield has also increased from 17,4 million tons to 18,3 million tons. This means the harvest is 2% smaller compared to last season. Rain late in the season has helped the crops somewhat according to some sources.
Too dry and too hot
Corn and soy were under some pressure due to rain in Brazil. The hope is that this will improve growing conditions in the major agricultural states. Still, the numbers are not encouraging for high yields. In Mato Grosso, 163 millimeters fell in October and November. That is 47% below the ten-year average and the driest year in at least a quarter century. The average temperature in the past two months was another 3,5 degrees above average.
Several market agencies and government agencies continue to insist on relatively high yields for corn and soy, but doubts have arisen among analysts. Mato Grosso accounts for approximately 25% of Brazilian soy production. The share in exports is even larger. Weather setbacks such as now are almost impossible to have without consequences for yields in Brazil.