King Winter has not shown much of himself this season, but that now seems to be changing. Colder weather is predicted not only in the Netherlands, but also in Eastern Europe and the US. Growers in India are expected to sow more wheat this season than last season. If the weather cooperates, this could result in a record harvest. In Brazil people were eagerly awaiting rain. Now precipitation is coming and the weather is not good.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed €2 higher yesterday at €221,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 2,2% higher at $6.13½ per bushel. Corn moved mostly sideways last trading session, eventually gaining a modest 0,3% to close at $4.66½ per bushel. The March soybean contract took a step back to close 0,8% lower at $12.67½ per bushel.
The mood in the wheat market shifted last trading session and players are cautiously looking upwards. Coincidentally or not, this coincides with forecasts for colder weather next week in southwestern Russia and northeastern Ukraine, key winter grain growing regions. Weather reports also predict colder weather in the US. Damage to wheat due to overwintering could not be too bad. With the lower temperatures, snow is also expected to protect the crops.
Jordan yesterday closed a tender for the purchase of 120.000 tons of wheat. According to trade sources, the strongest bid would be at $276,75 per tonne C&F (free). There are indications that Jordan will soon launch a second tender for 120.000 tons of wheat.
Area expansion in India
India is on track to achieve a record wheat harvest. The Indian Ministry of Agriculture announced this this week. The total yield could reach 114 million tons in the 2023/24 season. The previous record was set last season at 110,55 million tons. Wheat is still being sown in India, but the area is expected to be larger compared to last season. If the weather cooperates a bit and the growing season is average, a record harvest could be harvested.
Farmers in the arid western and central parts of Brazil are now wondering whether the rain that has fallen over the past week and is forecast for the coming days is a curse or a blessing. The answer is clear for the corn that still needs to be sown, moisture was desperately needed to get the crop going. For soy it is more complicated. The soy sown early/on time has suffered greatly from a lack of moisture. However, the crop is ripening quickly. The rain does nothing for the yield. In fact, the quality is more likely to deteriorate due to the wetness in this phase of growth. The late sown soy can benefit from the moisture.