The Black Sea region remains an uncertain factor on the grain market. Yesterday the Kremlin managed to surprise by intervening at a Russian exporter. Soya jumped up. The weather in Brazil seems to be a decisive factor.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed €2,75 lower at €204,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed ¼ cent higher at $5.55 per bushel. Corn closed 0,3% lower at $4.37¾ per bushel. There was more action in soy. The May soybean contract rose 1,4% last trading session in Chicago to $12.09¼ per bushel.
Russia remains a difficult factor to gauge on the grain market. SovEcon expects Russia to export 5 million tons of wheat in March. That is well above the 4,1 million tons in February. Bigger news is that the Russian agricultural watchdog has intervened in the case of Russian grain exporter TD Tif. According to the Russian news site lenta.ru, loads of grain have been detained because safety and quality standards are not met. According to the owner of TD Rif, it costs a lot of money that the loaded ships are not allowed to leave. Previously there were no problems, but since March 18 the Russian authorities have been difficult. TD Rif would be put under great pressure to sell assets at a 'negligible price' according to Lenta's report.
Rain plays tricks on soy
Soya is quite volatile and this is largely due to developments in Brazil. According to Partia Agronegocios, 69,3% percent of the soy area has been harvested compared to 70,4% last season. Even more important are the yield figures. The USDA's agricultural attaché in Brazil has lowered the crop forecast for the 2023/24 season to 152.6 million tons. This is mainly because the weather did not cooperate for soy growers at the end of 2023.
In the south of Brazil the weather is not helping at the time of harvest. Research by Cepea shows that the combines are left unemployed due to rain. Prices for soy are on the rise on the Brazilian market. The average grower price increased by 1,8% last week according to Cepea. The soy price rose by 1,3% between processors. Corn benefits somewhat from this, but the increase here is limited to 0,3%.
On the CBoT, maize has difficulty choosing direction. According to analysts, this is because traders are being on the cautious side in taking positions in the run-up to the acreage expectations that the USDA will issue next Thursday. A Bloomberg poll shows that the market is expecting a contraction in the US corn area. Instead, more soy is being sown by US crop farmers. Due to a relatively large final stock of corn, the market responds only to a limited extent.