Just before the long weekend at the grain fairs, the USDA released its acreage expectations for this spring. Less corn and more soy are being sown by crop farmers in the US. That is also what analysts were counting on. Yet it did not leave the Chicago stock exchange untouched. Poland and Ukraine are close to an agreement on grain imports, but have been unable to reach an agreement after their talks. Moscow is not concerned about the EU's proposed import tax.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed €2,75 higher yesterday at €203,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains were more strongly on the rise. Wheat closed 2,4% higher at $5.60¼ a bushel. Corn actually closed 3,6% higher at $4.42 per bushel. Soy did not close in the green, losing 1 cent to $11.91½ per bushel.
Yesterday the USDA released the area forecast for next season. Analysts have already assumed that corn is less popular with American arable farmers and that they prefer soy. Corn acreage will shrink by 5% to 90 million acres (approximately 36 million hectares), according to the USDA. 3% more soy is sown, bringing the area to 86,5 million acres (approximately 35 million hectares). The total area cultivated with wheat is down 4% compared to last season to 47,5 million acres (approximately 20 million hectares). 7% less winter wheat has been sown. Spring wheat and durum wheat are sown more often. In addition to the area forecast, the USDA also released new stock figures yesterday. Compared to March last year, wheat stocks are 16% larger, corn 13% and soy 9%. The acreage forecast that is bullish outweighs the inventory figures that are bearish.
Import issues
Poland and Ukraine are close to a solution for the import of agricultural goods. Polish Prime Minister Tusk said this after the consultation between the two countries yesterday. However, no agreement has yet been reached. Under pressure from protesting farmers (from blockades at the border to the sabotage of a train loaded with grain from Ukraine), Tusk is looking for a solution to the influx of grain from Ukraine. Polish farmers want an end to the exceptional position for Ukraine, which has been allowed to export duty-free to the EU as a third country since the Russian invasion. Ukraine emphasizes that only small volumes are sold to Europe and that the vast majority of exports go via the Black Sea. However, it is out of the question for Ukraine to no longer export grain via Poland at all.
Brussels wants to introduce an additional tax on grain imported from Russia and Belarus. The EU is mainly shooting itself in the fingers, according to the director of agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor. By introducing an additional levy, less grain will be sent to the EU, the head of the service Sergei Dankvert told the Russian news agency Tass. Russia can serve other customers with approximately 2,5 to 3 million tons of grain that was actually intended for the EU, it said.