The weather just doesn't want to cooperate in Europe. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) from the UK raised the alarm about this. Wheat prices in the Black Sea region are slowing down, but Russia did see a step up in grain exports. In the US, the new growing season for corn and soy is off to a fairly good start. There are concerns about wheat on the southern prairies.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed €0,25 higher at €203,75 per tonne. Wheat on the CBoT closed 0,8% lower at $5.51¾ per bushel. Corn also retreated on the Chicago exchange, down 0,9% to $4.31½ per bushel. Soy was the biggest decliner, losing 1,4% to close at $11.58¼ per bushel.
It doesn't seem to get dry in Europe. France has had the fifth wettest March since records began in 1958. In Great Britain, 160% of the average rainfall for this period fell in the first months of this year, according to Aura Commodities. With the growing season uncooperative in Britain, AHDB expects UK wheat imports to exceed the five-year average. Other countries in Northwestern Europe have similar problems, according to analysts.
Export boost
Ikar has kept the price for Russian Black Sea wheat at $210 per tonne. Russian grain exports increased by 27% compared to the previous week to 1,31 million tons according to SovEcon. Of this, 1,14 million tonnes was wheat, an increase of 39% compared to last week. Ukraine has exported 37,6 million tons of grain so far this season, according to new figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. Total exports are therefore 4% behind last season. Ukraine exported 14,7 million tons of wheat from 386.000 in the first weeks of April. Wheat exports are therefore 9% larger than last season over the same period. At 20,5 million tons, corn exports are 11% behind last season.
Kazakhstan has extended the wheat import ban for six months as of April 12. This import ban was imposed a year ago by Kazakhstan because illegal imports of wheat caused prices to fall by approximately 50%, according to the government. According to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Agriculture, 1,5 to 2 million tons of wheat were illegally imported every year. That would have caused damage of approximately $500 million in Kazakhstan.
Smooth start in the US
Spring work is slowly getting underway in the US. 6% of planned corn acreage has been seeded, according to the USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. This time last year, 7% had been sown and the five-year average is 5%. This week is also the first time this season that soy has been included in the report. 3% has been sown and that is the same as this week last season. The five-year average is 1%.
Due to drought on the southern prairies, the condition of winter wheat has deteriorated slightly this week. 55% of the area receives a good or excellent rating compared to 56% last week. Last season, only 27% were rated as good or excellent. In terms of growth, the wheat is ahead of last season. 11% of US winter wheat is in the ear compared to 7% last season. The sowing of spring wheat, at 7% sown, is slightly ahead of the five-year average of 6%. Barley is lagging behind with 11% sown this season compared to 12% in the five-year average.