The European Commission has not published export figures for almost a month and a half, while they are normally published every week. This is particularly unfortunate, according to analysts, now that the Matif is at its highest level in nine months. Forced by the wet autumn, French farmers are sowing more corn and spring barley, according to the new area forecast from the French Ministry of Agriculture. Nevertheless, the total grain area in France is shrinking for the third year in a row.
The September wheat contract on the Matif closed €1 higher yesterday at €250,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, prices took a step back last trading session. The July wheat contract closed 1% lower at $6.65¾ per bushel. Corn showed a similar decline, losing 1,1% to $4.62½ per bushel. Soybean moved mostly sideways, as is almost usual, closing 1 cent lower at $12.13½ per bushel.
French arable farmers are forced to choose spring barley and corn. This is evident from the provisional acreage figures from the French Ministry of Agriculture. Compared to last season, the area of spring barley has grown by 12,2% to 502.000 hectares. The cultivated area of spring barley is therefore still 15,8% below the five-year average. The corn area is 9,6% larger than last year and amounts to 1,4 million hectares. That is 5% below the five-year average. Despite the fact that more summer grain has been sown, the total grain area in France is 3,2% smaller than last season. This is the third year in a row that the grain area has decreased.
The area of beets and sunflowers remains stable at 398.000 and 823.000 hectares respectively. Soya has fallen out of favor with French arable farmers. According to the ministry, the area will shrink by 5,5% to 149.000 hectares.
No export figures
The European Commission normally publishes the import and export figures for grains and oilseeds every week. Due to technical problems, the last figures date from March 27. Criticism about the lack of new figures is increasing. On the Matif, wheat rose to its highest level since July last year. It is now difficult for the trade and analysts to estimate whether exports are one of the factors. In addition, European grain exporters face competition from the Black Sea region. Reliable export figures are essential to estimate how sustainable the rally in the wheat market is, according to criticism. The absence of figures does not contribute to market transparency.
Up to 2,5 million tons of soy lost
Conab, which falls under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, surprised the market earlier this week by not including the floods in the Rio Grande do Sol province in its soy yield figures. Brazilian bank Itaú BBA estimates that 1 to 2,5 million tons of soy were lost in Rio Grande do Sol due to the floods. Itaú BBA writes that approximately 5 million tons of soy still need to be threshed. In addition, the bank warns that part of the harvest in storage may also have been damaged by the floods.
The floods do not only have consequences for soy. May is also the month in which winter wheat is sown in Brazil. Arable farmers cannot get onto the land because of the water. Later sowing has consequences for the yield potential of winter wheat according to Itaú BBA.