There is potential, but wheat in Kansas is still outside

The September contract for wheat on the Matif yielded €2,25 yesterday, reaching €248,25 per tonne. There are no major shifts in wheat on the CBoT. For a change, you might add. The July contract fell 0,4% to $6.63¼ per bushel. Corn closed 1,2% lower at $4.52 per bushel. Soybean was up slightly, closing 0,2% higher at $12.16¼ per bushel.

The frost damage to winter wheat in Russia seems to be not too bad. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, 830.000 hectares of winter wheat have frozen to pieces. That is approximately 1% of the area. According to several analysts, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will make a correction to that figure in the near future.

Concentration of power
Russian grain exporters have undergone significant consolidation in recent years, said Dmitry Rylko, director of Ikar, in a video conference at GrainCom. The four largest exporters control 75% of Russia's grain exports. Six years ago that was 45%. Rylko would not be surprised if in the coming season one of the exporters has half of the export volume of the Black Sea terminals. Rylko expects competition on the Sea of ​​Azov to increase, both through coasters and through the Kavkaz seaport. Exporters will want to make their move, especially in Kazkav. Here, a quarter of the export capacity was in the hands of TD Rif. That company has fallen into disfavor with the Kremlin.

The Winter Wheat Tour is over in Kansas. In three days, 449 winter wheat plots were visited throughout the state. The average yield is estimated at 46,5 bushels per acre (approximately 3,1 tons per hectare). By comparison, the USDA estimated wheat yield in Kansas in the Wasde report at 38 bushels per acre (about 2,6 tons per hectare). Romulo Lollato, professor of agronomy at the University of Kansas, explains in the tour notes that the yield figures are based on the crop's current potential. With two to four weeks to go before harvest, that is no certainty. “It's the yield we could get,” Lollato writes. “If it gets cool in Kansas with enough rain during ear filling, we can fully utilize the potential of the crop. But anything can go wrong before the wheat is safely in the silos.” According to Lollato, 46,5 bushels per acre is therefore on the high side.

The new drought monitor proves that the race is not over yet for wheat in Kansas. It is still dry in the southern part of Kansas, northern Oklahoma and an edge of Texas. That is the most important winter wheat growing region in the US. About a quarter of the winter wheat in the US is grown in a region that is too dry.

Dry, and more importantly, cooler weather is on the way in Argentina, writes the Buenos Aires grain exchange. Corn growers in particular can use lower temperatures. Due to high temperatures, dwarf cicadas multiplied rapidly earlier this season. To make matters worse, the insects also transmit viruses to the corn. The damage to corn was already estimated at $2 billion by the Ministry of Agriculture earlier this month. The hope is that with lower temperatures, insect pressure will decrease.