The IGC released new forecasts for the grain harvest yesterday. Both wheat and corn are performing worse than expected last month. The new drought monitor shows that it is especially dry in the wheat areas in the US. The Crop Tour in the US state of Illinois shows that wheat has the potential for record yields.
The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1 lower at €258,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat rose 0,7% to $6.98 per bushel. Corn also showed a modest increase of 0,6% to $4.64 per bushel. Soy lost some, closing 0,6% lower at $12.39¼ per bushel.
The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates global wheat production for the 2024/25 season at 795 million tons. That is 3 million tons lower than in the previous forecast from April. Earlier this month, the USDA expected a wheat harvest of 798 million tons, equal to the previous IGC estimate. The corn yield forecast has been reduced by 6 million tons to 1.220 million tons. However, the demand for corn remains high. The expected ending stock of corn has therefore been reduced from 291 million tonnes in last month's forecast to 281 million tonnes this month.
Drought
In the US, it is mainly winter wheat that suffers from drought. A quarter of the winter wheat is in an area that is colored dry on the drought monitor. Last season this was 47% of the area. Kansas and eastern Oklahoma and Texas could use rain. In the cornbelt they have had a shower from time to time this season. Iowa's moisture reserves may not have been completely replenished, but things could be worse. 10% of the corn and 7% of the soy is in a dry region.
Record wheat yields are possible in Illinois. At least that is evident from the Crop Tour held there in wheat, with a yield potential of 104,8 bushels per acre (approximately 7 tons per hectare). Last year, an average of 87 bushels per acre (about 5,9 tons per hectare) was threshed in Illinois, according to the USDA. In this season, the USDA expects 83 bushels per acre (approximately 5,6 tons per hectare).
The soy harvest in South America is progressing steadily. According to the Buenos Aires grain exchange, 14% of the soy area was threshed last week, meaning that 78% of the harvest has been harvested. Farmers in the Brazilian province of Rio Grande do Sul are also trying to save what can be saved from soy. According to sources, 90% of the soy has now been harvested there.