The JRC confirmed in the May edition of the Mars bulletin that it is wet in our region. This will not come as a surprise to most readers. What is striking is that the challenging growing season has only limited influence on the expected yields of the crops according to the JRC. India is heading for above-average rainfall in the coming rainy season. This could provide a boost in agricultural production there.
The September contract for wheat on the Matif rose yesterday by €7,75 to €269 per tonne. The stock exchange in Chicago was closed yesterday for Memorial Day.
Rain and flooding, the growing season is not exactly going according to the book in the Benelux, Northern France, South-West Germany, the UK, Ireland and Northern Italy. This is confirmed again in the May edition of the Mars bulletin of the JRC, the scientific agency of the European Commission. The sowing and planting of spring crops is delayed in this region. The winter grains are in poor condition due to the wet conditions. The root system of the plants in particular is underdeveloped and the availability of nutrients is only so-so, according to the JRC. Now that temperatures are rising and it remains humid, the disease pressure is high. This problem is made worse because farmers can hardly get onto the land with the sprayer.
More to the south and east of the EU, farmers are faced with a shortage of water. The rainfall deficit continues to increase in eastern Germany, Poland and southern Italy. The grains survived the winter well there, but now around flowering and grain filling, the potentially good yield is threatened by a lack of moisture.
Above average yield
With large areas suffering from problems, you would expect the JRC to be on the cautious side with its yield estimate. That is not the case. The average wheat yield has remained the same compared to the April edition of the Mars at 5,71 tons per hectare. Last year, according to the JRC, 5,60 tons were dried and the five-year average is 5,65 tons per hectare. So we are heading for an above-average harvest.
Perhaps the most striking prediction is that of potato yields. The JRC estimates the harvest at 36,8 tons per hectare, or 4% above the five-year average. Belgium takes the cake with a 5% higher expected yield, despite all the flooding. You could make critical comments about that.
Rainy season
The Indian Meteorological Institute expects more than average rainfall in the coming monsoon. During the four-month season that starts in June, an average of 870 millimeters fell over the last fifty years. The weather institute expects that 106% of that precipitation will fall in the coming months. Adequate rain during the monsoon is essential for Indian agriculture. Approximately 70% of the water needed for crop growth and for replenishing irrigation reservoirs falls during these months.
If the forecast is correct and there is enough rain in the coming months, it could boost crop yields in India. A good harvest and therefore sufficient food supply can reduce inflation, according to experts. Last year there was less rain than average in India, which cost crop yields. To control prices on the domestic market, the Indian government imposed export restrictions on wheat, sugar, rice and onions, among others.