Grain is still in limbo, but it won't be great

Most grain collectors expect the first winter barley this week. "The plots are very heterogeneous this season," says Jurriaan Visser of CZAV. "We expect the first barley this week, but there are also plots that are far from ready." The barley harvest has now started cautiously at Agrifirm Plant. For example, the first organic barley has been threshed in Flevoland. In Limburg, supplier Agrea also expects the first winter barley.

No indicator yet
According to Fokko Buseman, from the company of the same name in Scheemda, Groningen, it will take until mid-July before winter barley appears in the Northern Netherlands. "The barley yield is often a good indicator of what we can expect from the wheat. Until then, it is difficult to say how the wheat is performing."

In the Mars bulletin for June, the JRC estimates the Dutch wheat yield at an average of 8,3 tons per hectare. That is 6% less than a month earlier and 1% lower than last year. Then it was 8,63 tons. Yet our country has the highest average yield in the EU after Belgium. For barley, the JRC calculates an average of 6,91 tonnes per hectare. That is 4% less than expected in May, but 5% more than in 2023. Summer barley is -6% and winter barley -2%.

"I can't base myself on figures yet, but my feeling says that wheat yields will be disappointing," says Carl Pijls of Agrea honestly. The company is active in Limburg and East Brabant. "The month of June was wet and gloomy and that is not positive for yield and quality. We also encounter fusarium, which results in a lower hectoliter weight. Arable farmers on loess soil are used to harvesting 10 to 12 tons of winter wheat. This year that may be only 8."

Impact of precipitation
In the southwest, Visser agrees with this statement. "We had little sun and a lot of rain. That is not positive for the yield. It was also dark and wet during the flowering period. Drought is never such a problem for winter grain on clay, but excessive precipitation is. What impact has that had? We have to wait and see. No doubt nitrogen has been washed out and that also has an influence. We are currently in a drier period and it remains to be seen whether the plants have a strong enough root system. Every year is special, but this season is very extreme has become somewhat of a catch-all term, but the figures show that it is correct."

It is clear to Aart den Bakker, grains manager at Agrifirm Plant, that less winter wheat will be harvested in the Netherlands. "Simply because the area has decreased after the wet autumn. This has been partly absorbed by spring wheat and spring barley. Thanks to the European derogation decision, we have managed to have sufficient seed. In total, the grain area is expected to be slightly lower. It is not everyone managed to sow summer grain."

Barley in time, wheat late
Winter barley, which is sown a little earlier on average, usually gets into the ground before it really rains. It is striking that Agrifirm has seen the acreage grow in its operating areas, while this is certainly not the case in the southwest. Elsewhere in our country, cultivation has remained stable. Sowing winter wheat caused a lot of headaches. Some arable farmers were only able to get started in January. Despite a lack of cold, these plots have developed well. Sometimes better than previously sown plots. This also applies to early spring wheat.

In some cases, no grain was sown at all because it remained persistently wet. Growers there have opted for corn or beans in the southwest of the country. "Sometimes a green manure or grass is also sown," Visser says. "The kidney beans and other varieties are now all in the ground." This spring there was less rain in the northeast of the Netherlands than in the south. "The grain growers in Oldambt were usually able to sow all their wheat," Buseman says, "but anyone who still had potatoes to dig usually didn't get around to it."

More grain, less wheat
Growing conditions are comparable everywhere in Western Europe and this has an impact on yield. In its June estimate, trade organization Coceral assumes 296 million tons of grains in the EU for this year. That is half a million tons more than expected in May and 1,09% more than was harvested last year. Clearly less wheat and barley is expected in Germany and France. It is striking that the Spanish wheat harvest will more than double this year. Coceral estimates the total wheat harvest at 134,5 million tons. That is 1,4 million tons less than was threshed in 2023.