Grain harvest in Western Europe is slowly getting started

After a series of days with losses, plus wheat yesterday (Wednesday, June 27) on the Matif again. The September contract rose by €2,50 to €223,50 per tonne. Prices closed in the red on the CBoT. Wheat barely lost, closing 0,1% lower at $5.41¼ per bushel. Corn also closed lower, falling 1,3% to $4.20 per bushel. This puts the contract at its lowest point since the beginning of March this year. Soy also fell very slightly by 0,1% to $11.62¾.

The export of soft wheat from the European Union continues to lag slightly behind last season. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, which began in July, 29,6 million tonnes have crossed the border, according to new figures from the European Commission. That is 4,7% less than the same period in 2022/23 when 31,1 million tonnes were exported. European barley exports up to June 23 stand at 5,62 million tonnes, compared to 6,51 million tonnes a season ago. Corn exports are the furthest behind compared to last year. 'Only' 18,62 million tons have been exported this year, 29% less than the same period last season. According to the Commission, some export figures are still missing from France, Bulgaria and Ireland, among others, which means that exports will be slightly higher. However, the backlog does not make up for that by a long shot.

Ukraine has passed the 50 million tons mark in grain exports in the 2023/24 season. This is reported by the customs of Ukraine. Of this, 3,37 million tons of grain was exported this month (until June 26). This means that the total export volume is 3,9% higher than last season in the same period, when 48,4 million tons of grain was exported. Corn accounts for the largest share of the export volume with 29 million tons of exports, followed by wheat with 18,3 million tons.

Grain harvest in the Netherlands has started
The grain harvest is now well underway in various parts of Europe. The first barley plots have also already been threshed throughout the Netherlands. With the warm and dry weather, moisture percentages are better than expected and there will be more threshing this weekend. Yields vary considerably and so far have not been good everywhere, says an insider, who indicates that the wet weather since last autumn is taking its toll.

According to various meteorologists, the mercury is rising to tropical temperatures in large parts of Europe and this suits the grain in Western Europe well after the heavy rainfall of the past period. There, warm and sunny weather can have a good effect on ripening and have a positive effect on the grain that still has some time to grow. In eastern Europe, where the grain harvest is a bit further along, the high temperatures actually cause grain yield losses. The (summer) grain in Eastern Europe and the Balkans has already had to endure quite a bit of heat and those high temperatures will continue for a while, according to meteorologists. It is not without reason that the French agricultural consultancy Strategy Grain lowered some grain yield forecasts in those parts of Europe earlier this month.

We got the first one yesterday #winter barley received in Axel and Cadzand #grainharvest start carefully! #harvest2024 #winter barley #harvest #barleyharvest pic.twitter.com/fGRHlj9ocQ

— CZAV (@CZAVvoorboeren) June 26, 2024

Canadian grain yield forecast
Prices on the American grain market hardly changed last trading session. There were few incentives affecting the soybean, corn and wheat markets. However, we are carefully awaiting the statistics on acreage and yields of grains in Canada, published by Canada's national statistics agency. These will be published this afternoon Dutch time (June 27). Soy production is expected to increase by several percent, while exports will decrease slightly. The yield forecast for grain is probably slightly lower.