There is no fresh news to get the grain market moving. There are conflicting reports from the Black Sea region. After cuts earlier this week, SovEcon actually increased the harvest forecast for wheat in Russia. There is plenty of speculation in the US about what the weak impression Biden made during an election debate means for the soy market. China is a major buyer of American soy and as is known, Trump is extremely critical of China.
The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €3,75 lower at €223,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 1,2% lower to $5.54½ per bushel. Corn showed a modest increase of 0,4% to $5.54½ per bushel. Soybean rallied somewhat more strongly, closing 1% higher at $11.76½ per bushel.
The news about the state of wheat in the Black Sea region is contradictory. The JRC and Argus tempered the harvest forecast for the region earlier this week. SovEcon actually adjusted the forecast for the Russian harvest upwards. The agency now expects a wheat harvest in Russia of 84,1 million tons. That was still 80,7 million tons in the previous forecast.
Holiday mood
What also doesn't help is that America has a day off today because of Independence Day. Across the board, it seems as if traders were already in holiday mode yesterday. Some analysts expect wheat on the CBoT to slowly build momentum for an upward price move. With more than 50% harvested, the supply of wheat that must be removed immediately should dry up, according to this group of analysts.
The grain market doesn't care about the weather either. The changeable and wet weather in Northwest Europe is not getting a grip on the market. In the US, it threatened to become dry for a while in the large corn growing regions of Iowa and Illinois. However, rain has passed through the area in recent days and concerns about drought are subsiding.
Tactics
Yesterday the USDA published an order for 110.000 tons of soy with an unknown destination. There is speculation among traders about China's role in the global soy market. The presidential elections could have an influence on this. Biden did not make the strongest impression, to put it mildly, in a debate with Trump. As is known, Trump is critical of the trade relationship with China. There is speculation that China is already shifting how much soy is purchased in anticipation of a possible Trump victory. Purchases in South America are being pushed forward or postponed according to some analysts. Soy from the US is being brought forward by China to build in security if Trump becomes US president again.