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Analysis Grains & Commodities

US Independence Day attracts more than weather reports

5 July 2024 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Wheat on the stock exchange and Paris showed a cautious recovery yesterday. The fact that the American stock exchange was closed did not really help to create any buzz. Ukraine released new figures on transport on the Black Sea and was once again the driving force on the grain market.

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The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed €2,25 higher yesterday at €225,50 per tonne. On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean the stock market was closed. The Fourth of July, or American Independence Day, was celebrated yesterday with parades, picnics and fireworks.

The Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and in the Danube estuary have seen more activity in the first half of this year than in the same period last year. Transshipment increased by 68%, Reuters news agency reports. In the past six months, 52,7 million tons of goods were processed compared to 31,3 million tons a year earlier. The largest part of this, namely 63%, concerns agricultural goods.

In Western Europe the weather is not yet favorable for the wheat harvest. After a short dry period last week, it is wet again as usual. According to the weather forecasts, this will not change in the next two weeks. Where they could use rain, for example in Romania, there is no rain in the weather forecast for the coming days and where it could become dry at some point (France, Germany, the UK and the Benelux) more rain is on the way.

Even though Independence Day is an official holiday in the US, the wheat harvest there is not completely at a standstill. It is dry in the wheat belt on the southern prairies. Wheat has already largely been harvested there, so that is no longer a problem for the yields of the current harvest. That's different in the cornbelt. A large part of Illinois has been highlighted on the new drought monitor.

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