The price of wheat in Paris also rose again on Monday, July 22. These are not yet Olympic achievements, but the bottom in the market has clearly been averted. Now that more and more disappointing yield figures are trickling in, the price can take small steps.
The biggest news was that government agency FranceAgriMer lowered the ranking of French wheat from 57% to 52% good to excellent. For comparison: Last year the rating was 80% in the same week. Arable farmers in the country had received 14% of their wheat before the weekend, while a year earlier half was already in the silo and the multi-year average is 43%.
Lower German harvest
Rainy weather also throws a spanner in the works in Germany. After the Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV), the German farmers' association DBV also came up with a yield reduction. The DBV assumes 3% fewer grains compared to 2023. DRV previously spoke of a 6% reduction in yield. The winter barley harvest is almost complete and it appears that both yield and quality are disappointing this year. That's not surprising given the growing season.
The Matif futures market was already in a positive flow from the beginning of the week. International tenders and dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, among others, ensured this. Lower yield figures and slow harvest progress strengthened sentiment. The September contract closed on Friday at €223,75 and on Monday afternoon the price was €225 per tonne. Rapeseed and grain maize are also on the rise. The latter is striking. In the US, this market is under strong pressure due to good harvest expectations.
Physical market under pressure
The physical prices that arable farmers are paid 'at the well' are still two tens of euros less. Prices fell here last week due to some harvest pressure and probably an increasing supply. Last week, Goes recorded a price level of €202 to €207 for the new harvest. That is still ten euros above the level paid in Flevoland, where the price remained stuck at €197. Middenmeer is at €196 and is the only harvest that still has an old harvest, for which €8 less is paid. The Rotterdam feed wheat quotation actually rose slightly, to €220 per tonne.
In Eastern Europe, drought and heat are the main problems. This allows the harvest to proceed smoothly. For example, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture, 13,8 million tons of grain have been harvested in Ukraine, including 10,3 million tons of wheat. Until July 19, 2,3 million tons of grains and legumes were exported, compared to 1,4 million tons last year.
Northwestern Europe will continue to experience moderate and changeable weather for the rest of July. This is positive for a crop like potatoes, but the grains could use a dry period to bring them to the finish line. This ensures that concerns about yield and quality are not yet a thing of the past, but can also influence the market in the coming period.