After a brief recovery, the futures markets for wheat and grain corn are back in the red today, Monday, August 19. A correction round in the yields of European wheat, Russia and Ukraine only managed to please the market for a short time. What dominates is the difficult export situation.
Leading market agency SovEcon has revised down its expectations for Russia's wheat harvest by 1,8 million tonnes to 82,9 million tonnes. This has to do with new figures that statistics agency Rosstat came up with. They have corrected the yields in various regions. It also appears that the area of spring wheat in Siberia has not grown as previously thought (from 9,8 to 10,6 million hectares). Companies there have mainly opted for more rapeseed.
Ukrainian harvest completed
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture also came up with figures. The wheat harvest has been completed there and an estimated 21,7 million tons are in the silos and sheds. That is 100.000 tons more than was harvested last year. A minor attack on Odessa's export port has not caused stock market traders to hesitate.
On Friday, August 16, the wheat contract on the Matif closed at €205,25. This showed a small rebound after a week of price corrections. The price has to give in again on Monday and is quoted at €204,25 in the afternoon.
Corn prices
The CBoT showed a similar move, rising slightly on Friday and falling again on Monday. Around 3 p.m., the September contract is trading at $5,24 per bushel, down from $5,30 Friday. The corn contract does write green numbers at a rate of $3,75¾ per bushel. That's 12,5 cents more than Friday's close. In Paris, corn is trading lower, with a price of €194,25 per tonne, compared to €195,50 on Friday afternoon.
It remains warm and dry in Europe for the time being. This does not yet pose any major problems for the development of the maize plots. It does ensure that the wheat harvest proceeds at a smooth pace. In France, farmers are working on the last 5%. According to government figures, the maize is 76% good to excellent, compared to 84% last year.
The German Raiffeisen Verband (DRV) corrected its wheat yields to 18,76 million tons, which is 13% less than last year. The total grain production of 39,11 million tons is 8% less and therefore the smallest in seven years.
Staff shortage
Most wheat has also been harvested in the United States. On the other side of the border, in Canada, the combines are in full operation. More than half of the winter wheat has been harvested there. Significant precipitation fell further north, which is especially positive for late-sown spring wheat. News that Canada's national railways are reducing services due to staff shortages was not greeted with cheers in the country by the grain market. The Americans actually see it as an opportunity that allows them to export more wheat.