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Analysis Grains & Commodities

Uncertainty over French grain export figures

11 September 2024 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Despite the apparent lack of fresh news for the wheat market, the quotations in both Paris and Chicago rose. What is remarkable is the comment from the European Commission on the export figures this week. Corn and soy closed in the red. This while there is bullish news for soy. China bought a record amount of soy in August and in Brazil, where farmers would like to get out into the fields, there is not a single acre of soy in the ground due to extreme drought.

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The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday up €2 at €220 a tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed up 0,6% at $5.58¾ a bushel. Corn took a step back in the last trading session, closing down 1,2% at $3.79½ a bushel. Soybeans took a big hit, losing 2,3% to close at $9.77½ a bushel.

The moderate growing season in Europe may be reflected in the EU export figures. In the week up to and including 8 September, the EU exported 4,82 million tonnes of wheat, compared to 6,25 million tonnes last season. This is a 23% deficit compared to last season. The export counter for barley is at 1,32 million tonnes. This is 34% less than last season.

French figures not complete
There has been some confusion about the European export figures. The European Commission, which publishes the figures, has now added the sentence that the data from France has not been complete since the beginning of calendar year 2024. Broken down by country, Romania is the largest wheat exporter with 1,72 million so far this season. France exported 500.000 tonnes of wheat.

Record import China
China imported a record 12,1 million tons of soybeans in August. By comparison, 9,4 million tons were imported in August last year. In the first eight months of this year, China imported 70,5 million tons of soybeans. That is 3% more than in the same months last year. Relatively low soybean prices last month were apparently the signal for China to stock up. Some analysts point out that the US election campaign could also be a factor. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, the tension in the area of ​​trade between the two countries could increase further.

In Brazil, the weather is not cooperating for soybean growers. Market bureau AgRural writes that no soy has been sown in the South American country yet. "With virtually no rain on the radar and very high temperatures, the seed drills are staying in the shed until more consistent signs of precipitation come into the forecast," the bureau writes.

There is more activity in the central-southern part of Brazil. There, corn is grown as a main crop and 15% of the planned corn area has been sown according to AgRural. Last week, 8% was in the ground, but last year this week, 17% had already been sown. Corn as a main crop accounts for approximately 20% of corn production in Brazil. Approximately 75% of corn is grown as a follow-up crop after soy in the same crop year. Safrinha is the name of this second crop cycle.

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