Despite higher wheat and corn stocks in the US compared to this time last year, futures markets closed in the green. In addition to stock figures, the USDA also released the Crop Progress report. The progress with sowing winter wheat was particularly striking. In Brazil, sowing soybeans is not going very well. The Russian grain harvest 2024 has not yet been completed or the first forecast for the 2025 harvest has already been made.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1,25 higher at €222,25 per tonne. Grains were also on the rise on the CBoT. Wheat closed 0,7% higher at $5.84 per bushel. Corn showed a stronger rise, gaining 1,6% to $4.24¾ per bushel. Soybeans, on the other hand, lost some ground in the last trading session. Soybeans closed 0,8% lower at $10.57 per bushel.
The grain stock in the US is much larger than last season. This is evident from the quarterly figures that the USDA published yesterday. The total wheat stock is estimated at 1.986 million bushels. That is 12% more than in September last year. The wheat harvest estimated by the USDA is lower than the market expected at 1.971 million bushels. The corn stock in the US is estimated at 1.760 million bushels. That is almost 30% more than this time last year, but well below the average estimates of the trade. A poll by the Wall Street Journal showed an average estimated stock of 1.853 million bushels with a range of 1.754 to 2.0177 bushels. The USDA is therefore still just within the range with the stock, but at the very bottom. All in all, analysts call the USDA stock figures bullish for the grains.
Threshing of corn and soybeans is ahead
The corn and soybean harvest continues apace in the U.S. As of September 29, 21 percent of corn has been harvested, according to the new Crop Progress report. That is the same as this week last season. The five-year average is 18 percent. More progress has been made on soybean threshing, with 26 percent harvested compared to 20 percent last year and 18 percent in the five-year average. Soybean status is unchanged from last season at 64 percent good or excellent. Corn has declined slightly, with 64 percent of the area in good or excellent status compared to 65 percent last week.
The sowing of winter wheat has had a nice boost this past week. 39% of the planned area is now in the ground compared to a quarter last week. Last year this week 36% was sown and the five-year average is 38%. 14% of the winter wheat is above ground. This means that growth is slightly ahead of both last year and the five-year average which is 13%.
Drought inhibits sowing of soybeans
In Brazil, sowing soybeans is not yet progressing well. According to market bureau Safras & Mercado, 1,9% of the planned area has been sown, compared to 3,9% last year and 2,7% in the five-year average. In Parana, growers have made the most progress with sowing, and 13% of the soybeans are in the ground. In Brazil's most important soybean province, Mato Grosso, only 0,6% of the planned area has been sown, according to Safras. Due to drought and the lack of precipitation in the weather forecast, farmers are not in a hurry to sow soybeans, according to local sources. Brazilian farmers are further along with sowing the first crop of corn. According to Agrural, 30% of the planned area has been sown.
Turkey imports less wheat to protect market
Turkey is likely to import much less wheat this season than last season. At least, that is what the director of a large Turkish mill expects. During a conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, he spoke of Turkish imports of 5,5 to 6 million tons in the 2024/25 season, according to various sources. In comparison, last season (2023/24), Turkey imported 9,4 million tons, according to the USDA. The reason that Turkey is importing less wheat is the import association that the country set up to protect its own market. The import restrictions were supposed to be in effect until October 15, but due to large stocks in Turkey, sources expect the restrictive measures to remain in effect for longer.
At the same conference of millers in Baku, Rusagrotrans made a forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2025. The rail company expects Russia to harvest 87 million tons of wheat in the coming harvest. The 2024 harvest, which has not yet been completed, is estimated by the USDA at 83 million tons. The sowing of winter wheat is now behind last year but ahead of 2022. Russian wheat exports mainly concern wheat from the south of the country. Wheat from the central part is coming, but these are smaller volumes, according to Rusagrotrans. Rusagrotrans does not waste a word on the flooding in parts of Siberia and the drought in the southwest of Russia.