The weather is creating a certain steady undertone in the wheat market. While wheat growers in the US could do with some rain, corn and soy growers are in for ideal harvest weather. Attacks on two grain ships near Ukraine left the market relatively unaffected.
The December wheat contract on the Matif moved mainly sideways during the last trading session and eventually closed €0,25 lower at €228,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat showed a modest plus. The December wheat contract on the Chicago exchange closed 0,5% higher at $5.92½ per bushel. Corn closed 0,3% higher at $4.26 per bushel. Soybean, on the other hand, delivered somewhat during the last trading session and closed 0,4% lower at $10.34 per bushel.
Drought in the Black Sea region and in parts of the American prairies is causing a certain fixed undertone in the wheat market. The Russian Minister of Agriculture seems to be preparing for a reduction in the Russian harvest forecast. He spoke yesterday about setbacks due to the weather and problems for agriculture in the regions where war is being fought.
The Ikar quotation for Russian Black Sea wheat rose by $1 to $223 per tonne. Russian grain exports fell sharply last week, according to SovEcon figures. Last week, Russia exported 870.000 tonnes, compared to 1,3 million tonnes a week earlier. Of the total grain exports last week, 800.000 tonnes were wheat, compared to 1,29 million tonnes a week earlier.
Free passage
In Ukraine, grain exports are going much better than last season. Up to October 7, 11,2 million tons of grain have been exported compared to 7,2 million tons a year earlier, according to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. More than half, namely 6,5 million tons, of the grain exports are wheat. Furthermore, Ukraine has exported 3 million tons of corn and 1,4 million tons of barley.
Safe passage on the Black Sea is of great importance for Ukrainian grain exports. This is not a given, as has become clear in recent days. On Sunday and yesterday, grain ships were hit by Russian missiles, Ukrainian authorities announced. On Sunday, a bulk carrier sailing under the flag of St. Kitts and Nevis was hit by a Russian missile. According to Ukrainian sources, the ship was loaded with 6.000 tons of corn; no one was injured in the attack. On Monday, a ship sailing under the flag of Palau was hit. One Ukrainian was killed and five passengers were injured.
Good harvest weather
In the US, the corn and soybean harvest is in full swing. Dry weather in much of the corn belt is helping US farmers in that regard. Threshing of soybeans in particular is proceeding at a rapid pace, as can be read in this week's Crop Progress report. 47% of the soybean area has been harvested, compared to 34% at this time in the five-year average. Last year this week, 37% had been harvested and last week 26% had been threshed. The condition of the soybeans has deteriorated somewhat this week. 63% of the area has been rated good or excellent, compared to 64% last week. Corn in the US has been harvested for 30%, compared to 27% in the five-year average and 31% last year this week. The corn status has remained unchanged, with 64% of the area rated good or excellent.
US farmers are now just over halfway through planting winter wheat. According to the USDA, 51% of the planned area is in the ground. That puts planting slightly behind the five-year average and last year, when 52% was planted. A quarter of the winter wheat is above ground, which is equal to the average and last year.