Algeria excludes French wheat in latest tender

The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,50 higher at €231,25 per tonne. Wheat also showed a plus on the CBoT. The December contract there closed 0,8% higher at $6.03¾ per bushel. Corn and soybeans delivered some in the last trading session on the Chicago exchange. Corn closed 0,6% lower at $4.18½ per bushel and soybeans fell by 0,5% to $10.14¾ per bushel.

Algeria and Russia seem to have found each other. The North African country can import up to 3 million Russian wheat this season. This message comes from a Russian trade mission visiting Algeria. On October 8, an Algerian tender closed in which more than 500.000 wheat was secured. In the first three months of this season, Algeria has already imported almost 1 million tons of wheat.

Dent in confidence
Relations between Algeria and France are not improving. Until a few years ago, France was by far the largest supplier of wheat to Algeria, which is a major importer on the world market. However, diplomatic ties between the two countries have cooled. The new low point for the time being is that French wheat was excluded from the tender of October 8. Not only were French companies not invited to bid on this tender, exporters were explicitly told not to offer wheat of French origin, Reuters reports.

France has the smallest grain harvest in years this season, quality is not 'you of it' and French wheat is relatively expensive compared to Black Sea wheat. That Algeria now wants nothing to do with wheat from France is not such a problem from that point of view.

For Putin, the news from Algeria is a boost. Russia wants to become an agro superpower and the Kremlin wants to increase the export of agricultural products by 50% in 2030. Russia is already the largest wheat exporter in the world. Russian ambitions are high, but the weather is not cooperating completely this season. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has lowered the yield forecast for the total grain harvest by 2 million tons to 130 million tons. For comparison, the 2023 harvest was 148 million tons and in 2022 a record of 158 million tons of grain was even harvested. The 2024 wheat harvest is estimated at 83 million tons by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture.

Dry start for winter wheat
In large parts of the US, it is starting to get dry or there are problems due to a lack of precipitation. Corn and soybean growers in the cornbelt do not care. Because good weather comes at just the right time during harvest. On the southern prairies of the wheatbelt of the US, rain is badly needed to get the winter wheat going there.

Grain traders anticipated the Wasde report that will be released tonight Dutch time during the last trading session. In general, traders seem to be expecting a neutral to slightly bearish report. Experts do not expect major shifts in the yields of corn and soybeans in the US. The world ending stock of wheat and corn is expected to be slightly lower than in the September edition of the Wasde, according to the Reuters poll.

Somewhat remarkable news came from Argentina. Rain in the weather forecasts for that country for the next two weeks tempered the corn and soy market. However, the Buenos Aires stock exchange issued a warning for corn in Argentina yesterday. Due to drought, not all corn has been sown yet and work there has now come to a standstill. The Rosario stock exchange lowered the yield forecast for winter wheat in Argentina by 1 million tons to 19,5 million tons. The reason for the reduction is easy to guess. That is the drought. Furthermore, analysts at the Rosario stock exchange expect that due to the drought, less corn may be sown and that farmers will opt for soy. However, they are keeping the area forecast for both crops unchanged for the time being.