Attempts by Russia to raise the price of wheat on the world market have not been an unqualified success. France has again lowered the yield figures for wheat. Traders on the Paris stock exchange apparently did not care. The USDA released its Crop Progress report a little later than usual yesterday.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,50 lower at €226,25 per bushel. On the CBoT, grains also closed in the red. Wheat fell 1% to $5.79½ per bushel. The biggest faller on the Chicago exchange was corn, which lost 1,5% to $4.01¼ per bushel. Soybeans held up reasonably well, eventually closing 0,5% lower at $9.91 per bushel.
Russia continues to keep the minds of the wheat market busy. Last week, the Kremlin made a clear attempt to raise the wheat price on the world market. We can conclude for the time being that this has not been entirely successful. There will be no hard export ban and analysts doubt whether Russian exporters will keep their ranks closed and not dive below the minimum price of $250 per ton proposed by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. The Russian Union of Grain Traders came up with an indicative price for wheat delivered on the ship to the Black Sea for the first time yesterday. For wheat with 12,5% protein for direct delivery, they put $240 per ton on the board, for delivery in November $245 and December $250 per ton. By regularly coming up with its own indicative prices, Russia hopes to gain more influence on price formation.
Lower harvest estimate
In the EU, wheat exports are 29% behind last season. Up to October 13, 6,64 million tons of wheat have been exported, according to statistics from the European Commission. The French Ministry of Agriculture has revised down the yield figures for the 2024 harvest. The wheat harvest is now estimated at 25,4 million tons, compared to 25,8 million tons last month. This year's harvest is therefore 27,6% lower than last year. The barley harvest has been reduced by 200.000 to 9,8 million tons. That is a fifth less than last season's harvest. The estimate for grain maize has been increased slightly to 14,5 million tons. Due to the wet weather during the harvest, further setbacks in maize cannot be ruled out.
Good thirsty weather
A day later than usual due to Columbus Day, the USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report yesterday. The dry weather in large parts of the corn belt is favorable for harvesting activities. This is clearly reflected in the report. 47% of the corn area has been threshed. Last week, the counters were still at 30%. Compared to both last season and the five-year average, the American corn growers have built up a considerable lead. Last season, 42% had been harvested at this time and the five-year average is at 39%. In soybeans, two-thirds of the area has been harvested, compared to 57% last season and 51% in the five-year average.
The sowing of winter wheat is proceeding at a slightly slower pace than the harvest of corn and soy. 64% of the planned area of winter wheat has been sown. Last year this week it was 65% and the five-year average is 66%. The emergence of winter wheat is also lagging behind. 35% is above. That was 36% last year and 38% in the five-year average.