Actively steering a market is no easy task. Russian grain exporters are now discovering this. They are not yet adhering to the proposed minimum price, while exports are already declining somewhat. In the US, the harvest of corn and soy is going smoothly, according to the new Crop Progress report. Brazilian farmers can finally make some progress with sowing soy, but much remains to be done. Partly due to healthy demand, corn and soy were on the rise during the last trading session.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,25 lower at €224,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat moved mainly sideways. The December contract closed half a cent lower at $5.72¼ per bushel. Corn showed a plus and closed 1,2% higher at $4.09½ per bushel. Soybean lagged slightly behind corn with an increase of 1,1%. The November soybean contract thus ended at $9.81 per bushel.
Scattered showers in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia have put some pressure on the wheat market. Several local sources warn that there has not been enough rain to really solve the drought problems in the area. More rain is needed over a larger area to really get the winter wheat in the area going. Time is running out though as winter is almost upon us.
Russian grain exporters are not adhering to their own minimum prices. The Ikar quotation for Russian Black Sea wheat has risen by $4 to $234 per tonne. However, the floor price set by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters for October is $240 per tonne, $245 for November and $250 for December. The higher price appears to be costing Russia some exports. According to SovEcon, 1,01 million tonnes of grain were exported last week, compared to 1,28 million tonnes a week earlier. Of the grain exports, 940.000 tonnes were wheat, compared to 1,19 million tonnes a week earlier.
Rain mists the American wheat belt
Rain has also fallen in the US, but most of it fell west of the wheat belt. Winter wheat planting is continuing apace. 73% of the planned area is in the ground, according to the new USDA Crop Progress report. Last year at this time, 74% had been planted and the five-year average is 76% planted. In terms of growth, wheat is also lagging behind a bit, with 46% above. The five-year average is 50%.
Corn threshing is keeping the U.S. farmers going strong. 65% harvested this week, compared to 47% last week. Last year this week, 55% was threshed, and the five-year average is 52%. Soybeans are 81% harvested, compared to 72% last year and 67% in the five-year average. Western Illinois and Iowa are reporting very good yields in the 2024 Crop Watch tour. Other parts of Illinois are not quite living up to the high expectations, according to Crop Watch.
Sowing soybeans is slow
In Brazil, sowing of soybeans is going less well. According to market bureau AgRural, 18% of the planned area had been sown by last Thursday. That is a big step compared to the 8% sown a week earlier. Last year, however, 30% had been sown at this time. The rain is helping Brazilian soybean growers, but sowing is still going at the slowest pace since 2020/21, according to ArgRural. Especially in the largest soybean province Mato Grosso, things are not going very well yet.
Healthy demand for soybeans and corn gave the market a boost last trading session. The USDA weekly corn export figure of 1 million tons was at the top of the range that the trade expected. US soybean exports also went towards the top of the expected range at 2,43 million tons. According to some analysts, the exports attracted the interest of speculators. They stepped in and gave the market some extra support.