It will not have escaped your notice: yesterday there were elections in the US and Trump is returning to the White House. The commodity markets reacted somewhat nervously, but, as various analysts indicate, Trump is still a somewhat unguided projectile. What Trump will do remains a guess. Other striking news came from Russia. It did not make headlines, but the Russian Minister of Agriculture announced in passing that the Russian grain harvest will be up to 22 million tons lower.
Wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0,25 higher at €214 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains also closed in the green. The biggest gainer was wheat, which closed 0,7% higher at $5.72½ per bushel. Corn gained 0,5% to $4.18½ per bushel. Soybeans closed 0,7% higher at $9.93¾ per bushel.
The winner of the US elections has been announced sooner than many expected. Not all votes have been counted yet, but Trump has now received 270 electors and can therefore move back into the White House after a four-year hiatus. Traders on the commodity markets are already anticipating Trump's victory. On the Asian stock exchanges, oil, metals and soy are under pressure while the dollar is rising. Trump's idea for a 60% import duty on goods from China is not being received positively on the markets.
In agricultural commodities, the focus is on soy. China is reducing its dependence on soy from the US and is buying more of the oilseed in South America. For the US, however, soy remains the largest agricultural export product to China. Countermeasures from Beijing could therefore hit the American market hard. Several analysts also note that Trump is unpredictable. What exactly he will do and how that will work out remains guesswork. At the time of writing, wheat on the CBoT is down 1%, soy 2% and corn 0,2%.
Unfavorable weather costs Russian farmers tons
News from Russia was somewhat snowed under but is still very relevant. The Russian Minister of Agriculture has told Russian state media that the grain harvest in the country will be 20 to 22 million tons lower than in earlier forecasts. The total harvest will therefore remain stuck at around 130 million tons compared to 150 million tons in earlier expectations. The minister mentions unfavorable weather as the cause. The west of Russia was struggling with drought and in various regions in the central part of the country, growers had to deal with flooding.
In Ukraine, farmers are almost finished sowing winter cereals. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, 95% or 4,91 million hectares of the planned area have been sown. Of the sown area of winter cereals, 4,3 million hectares are winter wheat, 543.600 hectares winter barley and 67.900 hectares rye. Due to the dry summer and autumn, the winter cereals are not doing great, according to various local sources.
Tender news from Egypt
Egyptian state buyer Gasc has secured 290.000 tonnes of wheat in a tender, according to various sources. The average price is said to be around $275 per tonne C&F (freight). That is more than $10 higher than in the reports that circulated yesterday, for which Gasc would not have taken the bait. The wheat that has been secured comes from the Black Sea region.
In the EU, exports continue to falter. According to the latest figures from the European Commission, 3 million tonnes of wheat have been exported up to 7,76 November. Last year, the figure was 11,33 million tonnes. Exports are therefore 32% behind last season.