In Russia, winter crops have never been in such bad shape at this time. The Russian Minister of Agriculture therefore expects that some things will have to be reseeded next spring. The Canadian CBS released adjusted figures for the harvest in the country yesterday. The biggest concern is rapeseed. Although the harvest estimate was lowered, market players are more concerned with demand now that both China and the US are threatening trade restrictions.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €3,75 higher at €217,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 1,6% higher at $5.46¾ per bushel. Corn closed 1,1% higher at $4.26½ per bushel. Soybeans also showed a gain, closing 1% higher at $9.93¾ per bushel.
The state of winter wheat in Russia remains a concern. According to analysts at ProZerno, 37% of winter crops in Russia are in poor condition or have not yet sprouted. Last year, that percentage was 4%. Since these statistics have been kept, winter crops and Russia have not been doing so badly. "It is difficult to make predictions about the coming harvest," Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev told the Russian news agency Interfax. "We have just sown the winter crops and they are not doing well. They will have to be resown."
Statistics Canada has revised the total wheat harvest for 2024 slightly upwards to 34,96 million tonnes. This means the harvest will be more than 6% higher than in 2023 and the revision is in line with what traders expected. In the latest Wasde report, the USDA assumed a harvest of 35 million tonnes. According to Stats Canada, the rapeseed yield will be 17,85 million tonnes. That is somewhat lower than the 18,51 million tonnes in the Reuters poll. In an earlier estimate, Stats Canada had mentioned a rapeseed harvest of 19 million tonnes.
Dumping
Rapeseed on the Canadian futures market was under some pressure last month. This is mainly due to international trade relations. Canada took measures against the import of Chinese electric cars earlier this year. China responded with anti-dumping measures against rapeseed from Canada. The trade in rapeseed between the two countries is worth about $2 billion. Just before Beijing's import restrictions, Chinese importers built up their inventory positions, which means there is enough rapeseed until February. Another trend that some analysts see is that Chinese rapeseed processors are switching to soy.
For Canadian canola growers, the loss of demand from China comes at an unfortunate time. The newly elected US President Trump also has plans to impose import duties on products from Canada. Canola oil, which (along with used cooking oil from China) is a key component of biodiesel, could become too expensive for U.S. customers compared to other vegetable oils. What China has done to canola from Canada is, according to some analysts, a harbinger of what U.S. soybean growers could face if Trump follows through with his plans for trade barriers against China.