Concerns about the wheat for the 2025 harvest in Russia were not enough to give the wheat market a boost. In France, grain growers have sown almost 10% more winter wheat compared to last season. Still, the total area is not over the top, according to the French Ministry of Agriculture. In China, soybean processors are not happy with customs. Due to longer waiting times, they are running out of work stock.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1,25 lower at €232,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat fell 0,9% to $5.45. Corn lost 0,3% to $4.43½ per bushel. Soybeans also closed in the red, falling 0,5% to $9.76¾ per bushel.
French farmers have sown 6,3 million hectares of winter grain. This is the preliminary estimate of the French Ministry of Agriculture. The largest part of this area is filled with winter wheat. In total, 4,5 million hectares of winter wheat have been sown. That is 9% more than last season, but the area is relatively small compared to the last thirty years, according to the ministry. The area of barley is 1,2 million hectares, 0,8% smaller compared to last season. The area of rapeseed is 0,6% larger compared to last season and is estimated at 1,3 million hectares. The 2024 maize harvest is relatively large. In total, 15 million tons of maize have been harvested. That is 15,5% more than last year and 12,7% above the five-year average.
Smallest Russian wheat harvest in 4 years
From Russia came bullish news for the wheat market. Market bureau SovEcon has lowered its forecast for the 2025 wheat harvest by 3 million tonnes to 78,7 million tonnes. This would mean the smallest harvest since 2021. The biggest adjustment to the harvest forecasts is for winter wheat. SovEcon estimates that 50,7 million tonnes of winter wheat will be threshed in the coming harvest. That is 3,6 million tonnes less than in the previous forecast. The weather is not exactly cooperating for Russian grain growers. After a dry autumn, the wheat is in a poor state at the start of winter.
There is not much rain in the forecast for the dry southwestern part of Russia. The same goes for the east of Ukraine and Kazakhstan. A blessing in disguise for farmers in the region is that temperatures for this time of year will remain moderate for the next ten days according to weather models. The risk of wintering out is therefore not too bad according to analysts.
Export news from the US was not enough to support corn and soybeans. The USDA reported a flash sale of 170.400 tons of corn to Mexico yesterday. Soybeans were in even better demand, with sales of 187.000 tons to Spain and 132.000 to an undisclosed destination.
Slow customs
In the Chinese province of Guangdong, a shortage of soybeans has arisen in the processing industry due to delays at customs, reports news agency Bloomberg. Attempts by the Chinese government to become less dependent on the import of agricultural products and long waiting times at customs are causing a shortage of soybeans in southern China, according to trade sources who spoke to Bloomberg. Customs in Guangdong are taking much longer than usual to carry out quality checks on soybeans. Several processors have had to scale down their production due to limited availability of raw materials. This is also having an effect further down the chain. Feed factories are now facing a shortage of soybean meal. The problems with the import of soybeans are only occurring in Guangdong, where only the most soy is processed. In other Chinese provinces, customs are working at normal speed.
China has set a course to become less dependent on the import of agricultural raw materials. That is not going so well with soy. About 80% of the soy that the country needs comes from outside China. The delays in soy imports come at an unfortunate time for processors. Importers fear further trade restrictions when Trump moves into the White House in a month.