Hesitant and lukewarm, that is the best way to describe the recent trading session on the grain market. It was mainly a matter of waiting for a whole series of figures that the USDA will release later today. In Brazil, the soybean harvest could turn out less well than expected. A lack of sun is costing tons, according to growers' organizations now that the combines have done their first rounds on the early plots.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1,50 lower at €229,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat also took a step back with 0,4% to $5.34 per bushel. Corn and soybeans were slightly higher during the trading session. Corn closed 0,4% higher at $4.56 per bushel. Soybeans did slightly better with a plus of 0,5%. With that, soybeans ended at $9.92¼ per bushel.
The wheat market is not overflowing with enthusiasm. Rain and snow that the next winter disruption will bring to the US are putting some pressure on wheat prices in the US. In Europe and around the Black Sea, a somewhat drier than average weather pattern is expected. Nevertheless, that did not make the traders on the Paris stock exchange nervous.
Players in the grain market are more concerned with the series of statistics and reports that the USDA will release later today. For example, the Wasde report will be released and quarterly figures will be published on the grain stock and the expected areas of winter wheat and rapeseed. The export figures that are normally announced on Thursday will also be released a day later in connection with the day of national mourning in the US for former president Jimmy Carter.
Wet year in Brazil
The developments in South America remain a story in themselves. Due to drought in Argentina, corn and soy are suffering there. A lack of moisture was and is not a problem in Brazil (except in the extreme south). Various market bureaus and agencies predicted a very good soy harvest due to growing weather. Now that the combines have harvested the first soy plots in Brazil, growers are not so sure of real top yields. Due to a lack of sun, especially early in the growing season, the yields of the early sown plots are not entirely good, according to various sources. That is somewhat reminiscent of what we saw in the Netherlands last growing season. A dry year comes to you and a wet year goes away from you, perhaps also applies to Brazil.
With the start of the harvest, dry and solid weather would be welcome for Brazilian farmers. But that is not in the cards according to the weather forecasts. In that respect, the precipitation is not conveniently distributed. Further south, in Argentina, where they could do with some rain, there is hardly anything in the fortnightly forecast.