The grain market was somewhat rudderless, we could almost say because the American stock exchanges were closed. Lower prices do not directly correspond to better exports, as was clear from new figures from Russia. Furthermore, there is of course a lot to do about protectionism and trade barriers now that Trump is president.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €0,25 lower at €226,50 per tonne. The Chicago stock exchange was closed yesterday. Not because of Trump's inauguration, but because the third Monday in January is Martin Luther King Day in the US.
The Russian wheat price is under some pressure, but that doesn't really help exports. The Ikar quotation for Russian wheat fell by $3 to $234 per tonne. Russia's grain exports last week amounted to 410.000 tonnes, according to figures from SovEcon. Of the total exports, 390.000 tonnes were wheat. For comparison: a week earlier, Russia exported 520.000 tonnes of grain and that week was Russian Orthodox Christmas.
Sharp edges
Now that Trump is officially in the White House, the sharp edges of the import tariffs he campaigned with seem to have worn off. Several sources close to Trump have confirmed that no additional trade tariffs will be imposed in the first week. In a memo, the new president has ordered the investigation and correction of persistent trade deficits and the unfair trade and currency policies of other countries. Trump thus seems sensitive to advice that the immediate implementation of trade restrictions would likely send a shockwave through the financial markets.
The threat of a trade war has not been averted, however. "I will immediately begin overhauling our trade system to protect American workers and families," Trump said in his speech. "Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will impose tariffs and taxes on foreign countries to benefit our citizens."
Child of the account
That the agricultural sector could well become the victim of a possible trade war is evident from a conflict between Canada and China. Last September, Canada imposed an additional levy on electric vehicles produced in China. In response, China announced an investigation into the anti-dumping practices of rapeseed.
The consequences of this are visible in the rapeseed import figures that the Chinese customs published yesterday. In December, China imported 588.000 tonnes of rapeseed from Canada, which is 12% less than in the same month a year earlier. Over the whole of 2024, China imported 6,39 tonnes of rapeseed, compared to 5,49 million tonnes in 2023. Canada was by far the most important supplier of rapeseed to China last year, with 6,13 million tonnes. Conversely, China accounts for more than 75% of Canadian rapeseed exports, according to Farm Credit Canada.