European wheat exports are still not going very well. There is a strong demand for soy in the EU, as the latest export figures show. In Brazil, the soy harvest is starting slowly due to rain. Argentine farmers are enthusiastic about exporting extra soy. The lower export duty is having an effect, according to the Buenos Aires stock exchange. Russia is actually exporting less grain this season, according to the chairman of the Russian Grain Union. He also warns of a higher risk level for the coming harvest due to a moderate level of winter grains.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €4,25 higher at €229 a tonne. On the CBoT, wheat also jumped, rising 1,8% to $5.45¼ a bushel. Corn was also higher, rising 0,7% to close at $4.85¼ a bushel. Soybeans were unchanged at $10.45 a bushel.
European wheat exports continue to lag behind last season. Up to 26 January, 12,18 million tonnes of wheat have been exported, compared to 19,35 million tonnes in the same period last year, according to figures from the European Commission. Europe is doing well on the soy market. This season, 8,03 million tonnes of soy have been imported, compared to 7,11 million tonnes last year. Soybean meal is even more popular, with an import of 11,26 million tonnes, compared to 8,63 million tonnes last season.
Rain stops combines
The soy harvest in Brazil is not going so well. According to AgRural, 3,9% of the soybean area in Brazil was harvested last week. Last year at this time, 10,8% had been threshed. "In Mato Grosso, drier weather helped the harvest start, but work is still behind," AgRural writes. The agency also notes that the soy is being delivered with relatively high moisture percentages. Last week, AgRural lowered the yield forecast compared to the December forecast for soy in Brazil by 500.000 tons to 171 million tons.
Dry and solid weather is welcome for the progress of the soybean harvest according to AgRural. On the other hand, it can also cost yield. Due to a wet spring in the southern hemisphere, part of the soybeans were sown late. If there is little rain there now, as it looks now according to the weather forecasters, the crop will have too few growing days for maximum yield.
Argentine farmers could market 5 million tons of soy from storage in the coming months, according to analysts at the Buenos Aires grain exchange. Argentina lowered the export tax on soy from 33% to 26% for the period through June 30, an incentive for Argentine farmers to market about half of the 10 million tons of soy still in silos, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.
Greater risks
Russian grain exports will probably fall below 50 million tons this season. This is the prediction of Arkady Zlochevsky, chairman of the Russian Grain Union, on the Russian state news agency Tass. "We are lowering our export forecast below 50 million tons to around 47 to 48 million tons." Of the total export, 41 to 42 million tons are wheat. For 2025, Zlochevsky predicts a grain harvest of around 125 million tons in the best case. "Then we have to be able to sow summer grains on time and there must be no damage to the winter grains." The latter is not yet certain. 37% of the winter grains are doing moderately or badly compared to an average of 15% to 20%. "That is a high percentage, but that does not say everything about further development. It mainly indicates a high level of risk." Due to a relatively mild winter so far with thawing snow providing moisture, wheat in Russia is getting through the eye of the needle. However, nothing can be said yet about the moisture reserves that will be built up next spring.