A US import duty on products from Canada and Mexico, or no, not really. If you blink, something has changed again. Given the price trend of grains on the futures markets, traders have their own opinions. Australia is heading for a larger wheat harvest than in previous forecasts. Despite drought, wheat did better than expected. That is not the case in Argentina. There, the upcoming soybean harvest could be smaller than expected due to a lack of rain.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,50 higher at €234,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, prices also closed in the green. Wheat closed 1,3% higher at $5.66¾ per bushel. Corn did slightly better than wheat with a plus of 1,4% to $4.88¾ per bushel. The biggest gainer on the Chicago exchange last trading session was soybean. Soybean closed 1,6% higher at $10.58¼ per bushel.
Donald Trump's import tariffs continue to cause unrest on the markets. Last weekend, it seemed that a 25% levy would be imposed on products from Mexico and Canada. This initially put pressure on grain prices. However, during the day it was announced that the levy for Mexico would be postponed after the country promised to deploy 10.000 troops to guard the border with the US. On Monday afternoon it was announced that the introduction of the import tariffs for Canada had also been postponed by thirty days after Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau announced that they would work together in the field of combating organized crime.
The additional import duty on products from China is still in place for the time being. China announced countermeasures today. For example, there would be an import duty of 15% on coal and LNG from the US and a duty of 10% on agricultural machinery, cars and trucks. Nothing has been announced (yet) about a duty on American soy, as was the case in the previous trade war.
The Ikar quotation of Russian wheat rose by $2,50 to $239 per tonne. Russian grain exports amounted to 660.000 tonnes. This is the same as a week earlier. However, Russia did export slightly more wheat last week, namely 590.000 tonnes compared to 530.000 tonnes a week earlier.
Wheat is doing better than expected
The Australian wheat harvest is expected to be 2 million tonnes larger than previously expected, according to market agency Australian Crop Forecasters. The agency's harvest estimate has been revised from 29 to 34,5 million tonnes to 32 to 35,5 million tonnes. Abares, the statistics agency of the Australian Department of Agriculture, issued a harvest forecast of 31,9 million tonnes in December. Wheat in Western Australia in particular performed much better than expected despite limited rainfall during the growing season. Australia is expected to export 24 million tonnes of wheat, according to Australian Crop Forecasters. Prices for Australian wheat were under pressure due to the larger harvest, but the market now appears to have found the bottom, according to some traders.
In Argentina, there was less good news about the upcoming harvest. EarthDaily Analytics estimates the soybean harvest at 45 million tons, compared to the Buenos Aires stock exchange estimate of 49,6. Unlike the estimates of the Buenos Aires and Rosario stock exchanges, for example, EurthDaily does not base its estimates on surveys among growers, but on satellite images. And based on these images, the agency's analysts state that the crops in Argentina are doing moderately. Rain that has fallen recently is good for the crops in Argentina, but may not make the difference. The agency compares 2025 with 2018, when lack of moisture cost yields in Argentina.