On the Matif, the price decline of wheat came to an end last trading session and the March contract closed with a small plus. It is possible that the new export forecast for Russian wheat exports gave the trade some confidence. This winter is certainly not as extreme as the previous one, but that does not mean that wheat has come out of the winter unscathed. Both an excess and a shortage of water are causing problems in the EU. Trump caused unrest on the Chicago stock exchange by pulling out the import duties for Canada and Mexico.
The March wheat contract on the Matif showed a modest plus yesterday, closing €0,50 higher at €225 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains closed in the red. Wheat was the biggest loser, losing 1,1% to close at $5.72¾ per bushel. Corn closed 0,6% lower at $4.79¾ per bushel. Soybeans did close in the green on the Chicago exchange, with a gain of 0,2% to $10.31¼ per bushel.
EU wheat exports are not really getting going. Up to and including 23 February, 13,65 million tonnes of wheat have been exported, compared to 21,31 million tonnes a year earlier. SovEcon lowered its export forecast for Russia in the 2024/25 season by 600.000 tonnes to 42,2 million tonnes. For the coming season, the market agency actually increased exports compared to their previous forecast. SovEcon estimates that Russia will export 2025 million tonnes of wheat in 26/38,9, compared to 38,3 million tonnes in the previous forecast.
Too wet or too dry
The winter wheat for the coming harvest in Europe is not doing well everywhere. In the north-west of France, a combination of wet and cool weather is slowing down the development of winter grains, the JRC writes in the February edition of the Mars Bulletin. In a wide strip across central and eastern Europe that runs from Poland to Bulgaria, drought is actually a problem, according to the scientific office of the European Commission. In addition to the fact that there is little moisture in the soil, there is also hardly any snow to protect the crops if it gets really cold again at the end of the winter. The JRC expects that some of the winter grains in this region will have to be re-sown next spring.
In eastern Ukraine, winter grains are also developing only moderately. Sowing was done under dry conditions, which made it difficult for wheat to get going. Since then, the moisture deficit has not been replenished. And just like in Central and Eastern Europe, there is also little snow, which increases concerns about wintering. In this edition of the Mars Bulletin, northwest Africa is highlighted. Morocco and western Algeria are dry. In northern Morocco, the winter has been the third driest since 1991. It is also the sixth year in a row with a serious precipitation deficit in winter. Temperatures are around the multi-year average, with the exception of the last ten days of January, when it was significantly warmer.
An import duty next week already
At the Chicago stock exchange, unrest arose over the import duties that Trump is threatening. After the implementation date of a 25% levy on products from Canada and Mexico was postponed from early February to March 4, the cold seemed to be gone and various sources assumed that there would be another postponement. However, yesterday the president said that 'the tariffs are being implemented on time and according to schedule'. According to an anonymous source from the American government who is quoted in various media, it is far from certain that the levy will be implemented in March. That depends, among other things, on the border control to which the import duties are linked.
Brazilian growers have given the soybean harvest a boost. According to AgRural, 39% of the area has been harvested. Last week, that was 23% and last year this week, 40% of the soy had been threshed. The higher temperatures and sufficient dry days worked in the growers' favor. The sowing of the follow-up crop of corn has been completed for 64%. That was 36% last week. But last year this week, 73% of the planned area of corn had already been sown.