Wildcat strike makes soy market nervous

The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,75 higher at €226 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains also showed a recovery after falling earlier in the week. Wheat closed 1,6% higher at $5.47¼ per bushel. Corn gained 1,1% higher at $4.53½ per bushel. Soybeans also posted green figures, closing 0,9% higher at $9.96¾ per bushel.

The storm that Trump caused earlier this week with the tariffs on steel and aluminum and the reaction to it from Canada and the EU calmed down somewhat yesterday. Instead of the negative consequences of the import tariffs on world trade, there was more attention on the grain market for the weather forecasts. It is becoming dry on the American prairies. For the southern half of the prairies in the states of Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas, this will not change in the coming two weeks if the reports are correct. Further north, some precipitation is expected and if it falls, it will come in good time for the spring wheat.

A strike by workers in soy processing in Argentina is causing unrest in the soy market. The Argentine government had banned the strike at the company Vicentin (which operates several soy processing facilities). Not all workers complied with this and wildcat strikes were held at several production sites near Rosario. The Argentine government has tried to put an end to the strikes. According to the protesters, excessive force was used and they refused to resume work yesterday. Argentina is a major player in soy processing and a prolonged strike could therefore have serious consequences for the availability of soybean meal and oil. A twenty-day strike in December 2020 is still fresh in the minds of several analysts. If the strikers can quickly resolve the situation and work resumes within a few days, there is not much to worry about.

The strike comes at an unfortunate time for Argentine soybean growers. The harvest has started and although the strike is pushing up prices for soybeans on the world market, it is actually having a price-dampening effect in Argentina itself, some analysts predict.

Conab has updated its harvest forecasts for Brazil. The organization has increased its yield forecast for soybeans by more than 1 million tons to 167,4 million tons. The USDA had estimated 169 million tons in the Wasde report earlier this week. Conab has increased its expected corn harvest by 800.000 tons to 122,8 million tons.

French wheat exports cut
France will export less wheat in the 2024/25 season than previously forecast, FranceAgriMer reports. Exports this season are now estimated at 9,58 million tonnes, or 1,7% less than in the February estimate. The reduction is mainly due to less wheat going to countries outside the EU. The expected ending stock of wheat in France has been increased by 100.000 tonnes to 2,91 million tonnes.

Players on the wheat market are following developments in Ukraine with above-average interest. The trade policy of US President Trump is difficult to follow, and the same applies to his foreign policy. After the quarrel with Zelensky last week, the Ukrainians and Americans seem to have found each other again in Saudi Arabia when it comes to a ceasefire. Now it is the Russians who are obstructing. Putin said yesterday that he is not averse to a ceasefire, but that Russia is actually looking for a more permanent solution. Some commentators hear this as Putin wanting to quickly gain some ground in Ukraine.