Bone dry and soaking wet start for wheat in Australia

The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €0,75 higher at €221,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains also closed in the green. Wheat was up 0,7% to $5.40½ per bushel. Corn was above that, closing 1% higher at $4.61¾ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest gainer, up 1,9% to close at $10.34¼ per bushel.

EU wheat exporters are not exactly catching up. Up to and including 30 March, 15,68 million tonnes of wheat have been exported, according to the latest figures from the European Commission. Last year, over the same period, the export counter stood at 24,54 million tonnes. The fact that Europe is exporting less wheat this season is partly due to the very poor 2024 harvest. The stiff competition from Ukraine and Russia is also not helping European exporters.

The Ukrainian ministry is not making any adjustments to the amount of wheat available for export in the current season. According to the ministry, Ukraine has 2024 million tons of wheat for export in the 25/16,2 season. With a few months to go until the new harvest, 13 million tons have already been exported, according to the ministry's data. This could mean that the supply of wheat from Ukraine will dry up somewhat in the coming period.

Too dry and too wet
In Australia, the weather is not very cooperative for sowing winter wheat. In the provinces of Victoria and South Australia, it is far too dry, while in New South Wales and Queensland, everything is drowning. Last season, it was also dry in Victoria and Western Australia, but then there was still moisture somewhat deeper in the ground. This year, there is hardly any moisture left in the soil, according to various local sources. In New South Wales and Queensland, they have problems of a completely different order. Due to up to 200 millimetres in a week, entire corners are under water and farmers do not have to think about going into the field with a seed drill for a while.

Analysts are expecting a wheat harvest of 28,6 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, a Reuters survey shows. This would put the harvest 16% lower than the 34,1 million tonnes of the previous season. The range in the survey is from 27 to 30,75 million tonnes. In March, government agency Abares estimated the Australian harvest at 30,5 million tonnes. Prices for wheat on the Australian spot market are therefore on the rise. From 355 Australian dollars per tonne (around €207) in November, the price has risen to AU$385 (around €225) for delivery in June.

No change in US wheat belt
Drought is also a problem in the wheat belt of the US. This does not seem to change in the short term. In the important winter wheat states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas as well as in the spring wheat states of North and South Dakota it is and will remain dry according to the new monthly drought forecast for April from the American meteorological agency.