The stock markets, but also Brent oil, for example, were hit again last trading session. The grain market has so far emerged relatively unscathed from the battle that Trump has unleashed with his import duties. The grain market is also volatile, but the weather, which is not exactly cooperating with farmers, is ensuring a certain price-holding mood.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2,75 higher at €224,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 1,4% higher at $5.36½ per bushel. Corn was up 0,9% on the Chicago exchange to $4.64½ per bushel. Soybeans also closed in the green, up 0,6% to close at $9.83 per bushel.
Although grains closed higher on the futures markets last trading session, the unrest on the financial markets due to the import tariffs is not going unnoticed. The rumor that Trump wanted to postpone the introduction of the levies by 50 days provided some support. When the White House announced quite quickly that there would be no postponement and Trump even went beyond that with a possible additional XNUMX% levies on products from China, investors lost courage again.
Around the table
A positive point for us in Europe according to analysts is that the EU does not ruthlessly come up with counter-tariffs as China has done. Ultimately, you also damage your own economy with that. What the EU's response will be exactly is still unclear, but that an agreement with the US to prevent further escalation is seen as positive by several analysts. Whether America is open to that is another matter.
With so much unrest outside the world of the grain complex, it is difficult for growers and processors to set a strategy. Looking at the growing conditions for wheat, the signals are somewhat contradictory. In the EU, winter grains are developing reasonably well, while in the Black Sea region it remains on the dry side despite the recent rain. However, more precipitation is expected for Russia and Ukraine and temperatures will remain moderate. These are reasonably favourable growing conditions. In the US, water fell on the southern wheat belt last week, but frost may have caused some damage on a small scale. However, the dry weather is returning and the expectation is that the drought will spread in the US.
Start sowing summer crops
The USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the season yesterday. Corn planting has just begun in the United States. According to the department, 2% of the planned area is in the ground, which is equal to the five-year average. Growers in Texas are by far the furthest along with corn planting, with 59% of the planned area planted. With spring wheat and barley, American farmers are slightly further along than with corn, with 3% and 6% planted respectively. American growers are the furthest along with oats, with 31% of the planned area in the ground. The five-year average for this week is 28%.
Winter wheat is not looking great. The USDA is rating 48% of the winter wheat acreage good or excellent, up from 56% this week last year. 5% of the winter wheat is in the ear, which is the same as the five-year average.