Some people are more likely to admit a mistake than others. Trump falls into the category that has some difficulty with that. However, by postponing the additional import duties, he seems to be budging under the pressure from various sides (now also from within his own ranks) on his trade policy. With all the attention for Trump, the Wasde report that will be released tonight Dutch time threatens to be snowed under.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €5 lower at €219,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains closed in the green last trading session. Wheat gained 0,4% to $5.42¼ per bushel. Corn did a bit better and closed 1,1% higher at $4.74 per bushel. The biggest gainer on the CBoT, however, was soybeans with a gain of 2%. With that, soybeans closed at $10.12¾ per bushel.
US President Donald Trump managed to stir up the financial markets again yesterday. Admitting out loud that you have done something that is not so smart is not Trump's first nature. According to various analysts, the fact that he is postponing the additional import duty for ninety days for countries that want to negotiate on trade tariffs is a sign that Trump may have been shocked by the panic that broke out on the financial markets last week. The basic duty of 10% will remain in force. The tone towards China is also not changing. Yesterday, Trump announced that he would further increase the import duty that had already been increased to 104% the day before to 125%.
Before it was announced that Trump would delay the imposition of additional import duties, grains were already on the rise on the CBoT. After the news came from the White House midway through the US trading day, prices of corn and soybeans in particular continued to rise on the Chicago futures market.
EU struggles with Trump's pace
What Trump’s decision means for the EU is not yet entirely clear. Coincidence or not, yesterday the EU voted on the response to Trump’s tariffs on European steel and aluminum, which date back to March. The EU plan has three phases and, among other things, corn, wheat, and soy from the US would be subject to an EU import tariff. American companies such as ADM and Tyson Foods would be affected by the European tariffs.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a message on X this morning that she was pleased with Trump's pause. "Import duties are taxes that only harm companies and consumers," Von der Leyen wrote.
With all the commotion caused by Trump, there is relatively little attention for the USDA's Wasde report for April, which will be released tonight Dutch time. The Reuters poll shows that the trade does not expect major shifts. Analysts expect a small upward adjustment for the world end stocks of wheat and soy, and survey participants expect a slightly smaller stock for corn in this month's Wasde report. The corn and soy harvests in Brazil and Argentina will remain in line with the USDA's earlier forecasts, according to the Reuters poll.
Ikar released a new forecast for the Russian grain harvest yesterday. In total, the market agency expects Russia to harvest 129,5 million tons of grain this season. Of that, 82,5 million tons are wheat. The harvest is therefore slightly larger than last season. The total grain harvest last year was 125,9 million tons.