The news on the grain market came for a change not from Trump but from the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA came out yesterday with the Wasde report that gave corn in particular a boost on the CBoT. But even in the Wasde you can't completely avoid the trade war. The report starts with the remark that only tariffs that are in effect at the time of publication are taken into account.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €3,25 lower at €216,50 per tonne. Wheat also took a step back on the CBoT, closing 0,8% lower at $5.38 per bushel. Corn and soybeans were in the plus in the last trading session. Corn was the biggest riser, rising 1,9% to $4.83 per bushel. Soybeans were just below that, rising 1,6% to $10.29 per bushel.
The USDA has reduced the expected US ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season by 75 million to 1.500 trillion bushels. The lower ending stocks are due to better than expected exports, the USDA said. Global ending stocks of corn are also lower. The USDA now expects ending stocks of 287,7 million tons, down from 290 million tons in last month's report.
The expected US ending stocks of soybeans have also been lowered in the new edition of the Wasde report. Due to good demand for soybean meal and oil, more is being processed than before and the US is also importing more soybeans. The USDA expects that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel will continue to increase in the coming period. Now, among other things, this is being used cooking oil for use, but the import tariffs could reduce imports of such products, according to the USDA.
Competition from Brazil
The relatively optimistic sounds about exports that the USDA shows in the Wasde report are not shared by everyone. It is mainly the relationship between the US and China that remains tense now that Trump seems to be loosening the reins somewhat for other countries when it comes to import duties. Traders and analysts are anxious about Chinese counter-tariffs. Especially because China has an alternative for soy, namely Brazil, which is also bringing in the last part of a top harvest these weeks.
The Wasde report was not very exciting for wheat. The wheat stock in the US is larger than in the March edition of the report, partly due to moderate exports. On a global scale, the USDA has reduced the total amount of wheat available (harvest plus opening stock) by 800.000 tons to 1.065,9 million tons. Consumption has fallen even more, namely by 1,4 million tons to 805,2 million tons. The expected closing stock has therefore increased by 600.000 tons to 260,7 million tons. Incidentally, wheat consumption is larger than the harvest in 2024/25, namely 796,85 to 805,20 million tons.