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Analysis Grains & Commodities

Kremlin tinkers with wheat export tax

15 April 2025 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

The import tariff fuss is not over yet, but there was less attention for that on the grain market during the last trading session. It was mainly the weather reports that caused a sombre mood. Estimates about the upcoming grain harvest came from Russia and Ukraine. The USDA took stock of the current growing season in the new Crop Progress report.

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The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €4 at €214,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed down 1,5% at $5.47½ per bushel. Corn was down 1,1% at $4.85 per bushel. Soybeans were more sideways in the last trading session, closing down $1 at $10.41¾ per bushel.

The weather forecasts are putting pressure on the wheat market. Precipitation is expected for a large part of Europe, the Black Sea region and the American prairies. The winter grains and other crops are also ready for that. In Russia, the winter crops are mostly doing well. 93% of the winter crops are doing well, writes the Russian news agency Tas based on data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Of the total cultivated area in Russia of approximately 84 million hectares in 2025, 20 million hectares of winter wheat are other crops that were sown last autumn, according to Tass.

Higher levy
As of April 16, the Kremlin will increase the export duty on wheat by 8,8% to 2.210,10 rubles (approximately €23,80) per ton. Moscow is calculating an average wheat price of $248,10 per ton. Ikar lowered the quotation for Russian wheat by $1 to $250 per ton FOB (delivered on the ship). Russian exports have picked up somewhat, according to SovEcon. Last week, Russia exported 450.000 tons. That is 30.000 tons more than a week earlier.

In Ukraine, the grain harvest may increase by 8% compared to last season to 57,5 million tonnes. That is at least what analysts at APK-Inform expect. The larger grain harvest is mainly due to a sharp increase in maize. APK expects that 18% more maize will be harvested this autumn compared to a year earlier. The maize harvest will therefore amount to 29,2 million tonnes this season. The wheat harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 21,5 million tonnes and the barley harvest at 5,3 million tonnes. According to APK-Inform, Ukrainian grain exports for the 2025/26 season would increase by 11% to 42,6 million tonnes. The market agency does not provide an explanation for the larger harvest. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has not yet provided an estimate for the coming harvest.

Spring work in the US gets underway
The US Department of Agriculture released the second edition of this season's Crop Progress report. The condition of winter wheat has deteriorated slightly. 47% of the area is now rated good or excellent, compared to 48% last week and 55% this week last year. Of the winter wheat area, 8% is in the ear. That is equal to the five-year average, but last year this week 10% was in the ear. Spring wheat sowing is running at the same rate as the five-year average with 7% of the planned area now in the ground. Barley sowing is running slightly ahead with 13% in the ground compared to 11% in the five-year average.

The showpiece of American arable farming is corn, of which 4% of the planned area has been sown. Last year it was 6% and the five-year average is 5%. By far the most advanced with sowing are the growers in Texas, where 63% of the corn is in it. A start has also been made with sowing soy, with 2% of the planned area sown. That is equal to the five-year average.

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