Hardly a day goes by without Trump causing unrest again. Now it is the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who Trump attacked. This increases concerns about the independence of the American central bank under the current administration. Unlike in Europe, Easter Monday is not a holiday in the US and the USDA therefore also published the Crop Progress report. Russia and Ukraine published new export statistics.
The Matif was closed for Easter. There was no trading on both Good Friday and Easter Monday on the Paris exchange. The CBoT was closed only on Good Friday and reopened yesterday. Wheat took a hit last trading session, closing 1,9% lower at $5.38½ a bushel. Corn was more sideways, losing half a cent to close at $4.81¾ a bushel. Soybeans closed 0,7% lower at $10.29½ a bushel.
The American president managed to cause a stir again. Trump attacked Jerome Powell, the chairman of the American central bank (Fed), again. The president wants Powell to lower the interest rate to boost the economy. The Fed is cautious about this and first wants to have a better insight into how Trump's trade tariffs will affect the American economy. In a message on social media, Trump calls Powell 'a big loser'. Last week, Trump already called for Powell to be fired. One of Trump's economic advisors confirmed last Friday that the option of replacing the chairman of the Fed is being investigated. That would be quite a break with trend and makes players on the financial markets anxious about the independence of the central bank.
According to analysts, wheat in particular is taking quite a beating from the unrest on the financial markets. This is partly because wheat, unlike corn and soy, does not have the luxury of technical analyses that provide support. The weather is another factor that is particularly important for wheat bearish This past weekend, some rain fell on the American wheat belt, and more precipitation is on the way, according to weather forecasters.
Smooth start
In the latest edition of the weekly Crop Progress report, there is not much evidence of the rain yet. 45% of the winter wheat area is rated good or excellent, compared to 47% last week. In terms of growth, winter wheat is slightly ahead of the five-year average. 15% of the area is in the ear, compared to 13% in the five-year average. The sowing of spring wheat is going smoothly this season. 17% of the planned area has been sown, compared to 12% in the five-year average. American farmers are also ahead of the five-year average with the sowing of spring barley, with 26% sown this season, compared to an average of 19%. The sowing of corn and soybeans is also going smoothly. Of the planned corn area, 12% is in the ground, compared to 10% in the five-year average. 8% of soybeans has been sown, compared to 5% in the five-year average.
Ukraine has exported 21 million tons of grain in the current season up to April 34,45. Last year this week, the export counter stood at 40,29 million tons. More than half of the Ukrainian grain export, namely 18,07 tons is corn. Furthermore, Ukraine exported, among other things, 13,62 million tons of wheat and 2,25 million tons of barley.
Russian grain exports are faltering a bit. Last week, Russia exported 450.000 tons of wheat, according to SovEcon. That was 470.000 tons a week earlier. The price of Russian wheat remains virtually unchanged. Ikar puts the quotation at $250 to $252 per ton this week.